Dailyfx | Sep 15, 2015 01:23AM ET
Trading the News: Reserve Bank of Australia Minutes
The fresh rhetoric coming out of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may fuel a larger rebound in AUD/USD should the central bank adopt a more hawkish outlook for monetary policy.
What’s Expected:
Why Is This Event Important:
Even though RBA Governor Glenn Stevens retains the verbal intervention on the local currency, comments foreshadowing the end of the central bank’s easing cycle may boost the appeal of the aussie, but more of the same commentary may undermine the near-term advance in AUD/USD amid the deviation in the policy outlook.
Expectations: Bullish Argument/Scenario
Release |
Expected |
Actual |
Employment Change (AUG) |
5.0K |
17.4K |
Unemployment Rate (AUG) |
6.2% |
6.2% |
Consumer Price Index- Trimmed Mean (YoY) (2Q) |
2.1% |
2.2% |
Sticky price growth accompanied by the ongoing improvement in the labor market may encourage the RBA to deliver a more upbeat tone this time around, and the Australian dollar may continue to retrace the decline from the previous month should the policy statement boost interest rate expectations.
Risk: Bearish Argument/Scenario
Release |
Expected |
Actual |
Retail Sales (MoM) (JUL) |
0.4% |
-0.1% |
NAB Business Confidence (AUG) |
-- |
1 |
Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (2Q) |
2.2% |
2.0% |
However, the RBA may keep the door open to further embark on its easing cycle amid waning business confidence paired with fears of a slower recovery, and a more dovish statement may dampen the appeal of the aussie especially as the central bank continues to look for a weaker exchange rate.
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How To Trade This Event Risk(Video )
Bullish AUD Trade: RBA Signals End to Easing Cycle
Bearish AUD Trade: Australia Job Growth Falls Short of Market Forecast
Read More:
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AUDUSD-Reversal Risk from Down Under
Potential Price Targets For The Release
AUD/USD Daily
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Impact that Reserve Bank of Australia Minutes has had on AUD during the last release
Period |
Data Released |
Estimate |
Actual |
Pips Change (1 Hour post event ) |
Pips Change (End of Day post event) |
AUG 2015 |
08/18/2015 01:30 GMT |
-- |
-- |
+10 |
-28 |
August 2015Reserve Bank of Australia Minutes
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Minutes continued to highlight a neutral outlook for monetary policy after the central bank kept the cash rate on hold at the August 4 interest rate decision, and the board may largely endorse a wait-and-see approach throughout 2015 as the depreciation in the local currency assists with the rebalancing of the real economy. Despite the upbeat tone, the RBA may retain its push for a weaker currency and preserve the verbal intervention on the Australian dollar in an effort to further insulate the region. Despite the bullish market reaction in AUD/USD, the advance was short-lived as the pair slipped back below the 0.7350 region to end the day at 0.7340.
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