AUD/USD Falls To 5-Month Low
Growth Aces | Sep 10, 2014 07:12AM ET
GrowthAces.com trading position on the AUD/USD: stop-loss reached at 0.9230 on our long position, outlook is bearish now
- The depreciation of the AUD came earlier than we had expected and the currency pair reached the stop-loss on our long position at 0.9230. The AUD/USD tumbled as a pick-up in market volatility pushed investors into paring back hugely popular carry trades. The AUD has been a key beneficiary of loose monetary policies in Japan and Europe which have encouraged borrowing in EUR and JPY to invest in higher yielding AUD assets.
- The reading of Australian consumer sentiment did not help the AUD. A measure of Australian consumer sentiment fell sharply in September. The index of consumer sentiment declined a seasonally adjusted 4.6% in September, from August when it jumped 3.8%. The index fell by 15.1% yoy as households became more concerned about the outlook for the economy and employment.
- The AUD/USD fell also on rising expectations that the Fed will hike sooner than forecast. The AUD as a result in under pressure for level even below 0.9000. Our outlook is bearish and we will be looking to get short above 0.9200. The nearest resistance levels are at 0.9157 (Asia low) and 0.9188 (Tuesday low).
- Jobs data for August are scheduled for today’s evening (EDT, Thursday GMT). At GrowthAces.com we forecast weaker change in employment than the market consensus of 12k. A slight drop in unemployment rate (to 6.3%) is expected.
Significant technical analysis' levels:
Resistance: 0.9157 (Asia low Sep 10), 0.9188 (low Sep 9), 0.9288 (high Sep 9)
Support: 0.9048 (low Mar 24), 0.9032 (low Mar 21), 0.9000 (psychological level)
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