Mingze Wu | Sep 20, 2013 05:44AM ET
Bearish direction in AUD/NZD continues to be undeterred by recent uncertainty and volatility due to FOMC taper/no taper fiasco, and remains one of the “cleanest” currency pair if someone wants to play the interest rate outlook differential RBA and RBNZ. This is certainly not a new fundamental narrative, as seen via the decline that has been in play as early as Mar 2011.
Weekly Chart
Hourly Chart
The fundamentals for further downsides in AUD/NZD is sound though, the new Prime Minister of Australia as vowed to decrease spending in order to narrow the current account deficit. Rating agency S&P has also reduced Western Australia’s rating from the stellar triple A rating to a AA+ due to the growing debt burden. The economic health of Australia is definitely not good, which will be bearish for the currency, and the only way out appears to be lowering policy rates as stimulus/additional spending is out of the question due to reasons stated above. Therefore, the AUD is slated to trade lower whether the economy recovers or not. On the other side of the Tasman Sea, NZ’s economy may not be doing much better, but the dairy product based economy is more inelastic compared to the commodity based of Australia. Furthermore, New Zealand is fighting with increasing housing prices, and RBNZ has decided that keeping prices lower is more important than the appreciating NZD. Hence, the outlook for NZD is higher, giving us a strong AUD/NZD bearish direction which may bring us back to the lows of 2005 if current trend continues in the next few years.
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