Assurant, Inc. (AIZ) Q3 Earnings: Is A Beat In The Cards?

 | Nov 01, 2018 10:00PM ET

Assurant, Inc. (NYSE:AIZ) is slated to report third-quarter 2018 results on Nov 6, after the market closes. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered a positive earnings surprise of 11.64%.

Let’s see, how things are shaping up for this announcement.

Assurant is likely to report bottom-line growth in the to-be-reported quarter, mainly driven by solid organic growth across Global Lifestyle as well as Housing business lines. This probable upside can also be attributed to contributions from The Warranty Group (TWG) buyout along with lower tax incidence. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly earnings is pegged at $1 per share versus the year-ago quarter’s loss per share of $1.40.

Also, continued share buybacks are likely to boost the possible improvement.

On the back of rising interest rates, the company might experience better investment results in the soon-to-be reported quarter. Therefore, owing to an anticipated rise in investment income as well as higher premiums earned, fees and other income, the company is expected to deliver robust revenues in the third quarter. To that end, the consensus mark for the metric is currently pegged at $2 billion, representing a 30.5% surge from the year-ago quarter’s tally.

The company is anticipated to display a strong performance at its Global Lifestyle business in the quarter to be reported. Better-than-expected organic growth and a substantial contribution from the TWG acquisition have mainly led to this probable improvement. Also, the company might have experienced margin expansion owing to a combination of profitable growth and operating efficiencies worldwide.

Further, the top line at Global Lifestyle is likely to improve in the third quarter, fueled by sustained profitable growth in its vehicle protection business, driven by a probable higher sales volume.

With respect to Global Housing, the company is estimated to witnessed better-than-expected results, primarily boosted by probable multifamily housing earnings and revenue growth as well as a favorable loss experience in lender-placed.

The company is likely to generate solid revenues and earnings growth in its multi-family housing business, mainly attributable to the growing number of insured renters (currently having over 1.9 million insured renters).

However, the company might have incurred higher expenses, mainly due to a possible increase in policyholder benefits, selling, underwriting, general and administrative expenses plus interest expense. This in turn, will perhaps weigh on the property and casualty (P&C) insurer’s operating margin expansion.

Also, as a P&C insurer, Assurant is prone to the after effects of catastrophe loss and we expect the third quarter to be no exception. A probable incurrence of catastrophe loss might affect the company’s underwriting performance, thereby rendering volatility to its overall results. Nonetheless, the company’s consistent commitment to excellence in risk management is projected to mitigate a high level of catastrophe loss.

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What Our Quantitative Model States

Our proven model does not conclusively show that Assurant is likely to beat on earnings this to-be-reported period. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive Zacks Investment Research

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