Asia Roundup: Dead Cat Bounce For Gold?
Matt Simpson | Sep 03, 2014 03:22AM ET
Money Flow:
- Early Asia saw a continuation of USD strength, but it was Cable in particular that stole the show with a break to a new 23-week low. It recovered mildly back above the March '14 lows but a reminder of just how fragile GBP looks right now. Near the end of the session the USD gave back across the board, but not sure if this triggered by profit taking, heavy shorts entering or both at this stage. However it raises the odds of 'corrective' price behaviour and to remain within yesterday’s trading ranges.
News:
- AUS GDP came in slightly above expectations to see AUD spike to 93c but this was shortly lived as price promptly returned to pre-GDP levels. The markets awaited Glen Stevens speech where he cited low rates are good, but they avoid build up of risk. Whilst business is well positioned to looses strings.
- China Services PMI rebounds form 9-year low of 50 to sit at 54.1
UP NEXT:
- UK: Despite yesterday's construction PMI at its highest since Feb it was the Scottish Independence debate which took the main headlines and saw Cable break to fresh new lows. This appears to be the main driver for Cable at the moment so it may not be a scheduled release which effects it so much.
- EUR: Retail Sales for Eurozone and Services PMI for Germany, Spain, Italy and Eurozone are likely to be overshadowed by tomorrow's ECB minimum bid rate. Therefore I expect any EURUSD moves to be dictated by USD money flow if we see any action today.
- CAD: Rate Decision - Please read today's post for an insight
- USD: Factory orders are expected at an impressive 11% so any shortfall here is likely to cause a mild correction on USD. However due to overall Greenback strength it would be wise not to fight the raging bull. The Beige book is of more interest to the economists than day traders, so not likely to cause a tradable reaction.
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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
Gold: Dead-Cat bounce anyone?
Bias:
- Due to the nature of yesterday;s decline (hard and fast) I will deem any rally a retracement. We have currently found support at the Monthly/Weekly S1 Pivots but we really need to remain below $1273 resistance for this analysis to remain valid. However in true spirit of a Dead-Cat bounce, the smaller the retracement the more downside we can assume if it occurs.
Counter-Bias:
- Gold tends to react to Geo-political news, USD strength (or weakness) or the feel to take risk (which tends to be Gold selling). So if we do not see a combination of the above then we may end up in choppy, non-directional trading. What the catalyst may be I cannot predict, but at this stage I will assume we require continued USD strength for this to play out for the bias.
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