Asia Market Update: BoJ Rate Decision And Gold Outlook
Stephen Innes | Sep 19, 2019 01:21AM ET
h2 Bank of Japan /h2
The Bank of Japan kept monetary policy steady and will keep current low rates for an extended period, at least through spring 2020. Despite all the dovish smoke signal billowing over Tokyo last week, ultimately with USD/JPY is trading above 108, the BoJ thought it more prudent to hold off policy easing for tougher currency times. The BoJ maintains the policy framework of "QQE with Yield Control" unchanged around 0.00 while leaving the interest rate on IOER unchanged as expected.
The gold trade which has hinged on an extremely dovish monetary policy backdrop may now be prone for some profit-taking with the Fed disappointing expectations and other central banks walking back some of the market uber dovish expectation. Unless there's significant risk aversion around a trade war escalation, Gold may head back to $1460-70 area as the market takes chips off the table from what has been a remarkably successful run for Gold bulls. Sellers are starting to fill the cue to $1510 suggesting it's going to be a tough grind for Gold to make headway in this current environment
h2 Oil/h2Oil markets are tentatively bid as traders continue to hold on to risk premiums while the US and Saudi Arabia decide on the intensity of retaliatory measures. If a response is sanctioned, oil markets could be prone to a move lower as the FOMC dispersion policy model is not overly supportive for growth nor risk assets.
h2 Risk Markets /h2 h2 /h2Still sticking to my rates view that more Fed cuts are on the way, but views matter little when the market's momentum disagrees. The early reaction across a smorgasbord of bellwether assets suggests investors are mildly disappointed by Fed quarter-point cut and just a hint of organic balance sheet growth.
h2 /h2 h2 Malaysian Ringgit/h2The Malaysian ringgit is falling under a three-pronged attack: lower oil prices, a weaker yuan and a less dovish Fed. Indeed, the worst possible combination for Ringgit bulls. The strong USD is never a welcome sight in ASEAN risk markets.
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