Why The Earnings Surprise Streak Could Continue For Ardagh Group (ARD)
Zacks Investment Research | Jul 17, 2019 10:10PM ET
Looking for a stock that has been consistently beating earnings estimates and might be well positioned to keep the streak alive in its next quarterly report? Ardagh Group (ARD), which belongs to the Zacks Industrial Services industry, could be a great candidate to consider.
This packaging company has seen a nice streak of beating earnings estimates, especially when looking at the previous two reports. The average surprise for the last two quarters was 15.38%.
For the most recent quarter, Ardagh Group was expected to post earnings of $0.31 per share, but it reported $0.35 per share instead, representing a surprise of 12.90%. For the previous quarter, the consensus estimate was $0.28 per share, while it actually produced $0.33 per share, a surprise of 17.86%.
Price and EPS Surprise
With this earnings history in mind, recent estimates have been moving higher for Ardagh Group. In fact, the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) for the company is positive, which is a great sign of an earnings beat, especially when you combine this metric with its nice Zacks Rank.
Our research shows that stocks with the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time . In other words, if you have 10 stocks with this combination, the number of stocks that beat the consensus estimate could be as high as seven.
The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a version of the Zacks Consensus whose definition is related to change. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.
Ardagh Group currently has an Earnings ESP of +5.16%, which suggests that analysts have recently become bullish on the company's earnings prospects. This positive Earnings ESP when combined with the stock's Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) indicates that another beat is possibly around the corner. We expect the company's next earnings report to be released on July 25, 2019.
Investors should note, however, that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss, but a negative value does reduce the predictive power of this metric.
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Many companies end up beating the consensus EPS estimate, but that may not be the sole basis for their stocks moving higher. On the other hand, some stocks may hold their ground even if they end up missing the consensus estimate.
Because of this, it's really important to check a company's Earnings ESP ahead of its quarterly release to increase the odds of success. Make sure to utilize our Original post
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