Around The Roundabout First…

 | Aug 21, 2012 03:36AM ET

This will be a shorter update today with yesterday’s comments still valid. The slight shift is just the corrective pattern in EUR and CHF that occurred that looks very much like a triangle – and in the final leg now. This should spur the final leg lower in the dollar before the uptrend resumes.

Both GBP and AUD took the day to extend their rather messy and choppy corrections higher and may edge a little higher although the Aussie appears to have very little upside space to move into. Thus, the general impression across the board is for a similar day to yesterday but by the European session we should start seeing the dollar weakness beginning to become more direct.

As an interesting point to note, the U.S. indices had a quiet day and have set up the opportunity for both daily and intraday momentum to generate bearish divergences as we approach the year’s highs. Therefore, all it seems now is that we need some catalyst to turn the market around, or at the very least make a more sedate reversal allowing more time for a catalyst to occur.

Another point in support of the final dip in the dollar is EUR/JPY that had a sideways day, still with a mild risk of a slightly deeper correction but overall points to one more high before reversing more decisively lower. In turn this probably leaves USD/JPY neutral although, it too, needs another push higher to complete the corrective rally. The bigger unknown here is the relative timing of the moves of EUR/USD and USD/JPY.

Thus, bide your time as the relative cross market moves untangle themselves and take strong looks at the general expected reversal areas that should support the dollar and spark the reversal.

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Ian Copsey

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