Anticipating January Employment: ADP Report At 205K
Doug Short | Feb 04, 2016 12:35AM ET
The economic mover and shaker this week is Friday's employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This monthly report contains a wealth of data for economists, the most publicized being the month-over-month change in Total Nonfarm Employment (the PAYEMS series in the FRED repository).
Yesterday we had the January estimate of 205K new nonfarm private employment jobs from ADP, a drop from December's 267K, an upward revision from 257K.
The 205K estimate came in above the Investing.com forecast of 195K for the ADP number.
The Investing.com forecast for the forthcoming BLS report is for 190K nonfarm new jobs (the actual PAYEMS number).
Here is an excerpt from yesterday's ADP report:
"One of the main reasons for lower overall employment gains in January was the drop off in jobs added at the largest companies compared to December. These businesses are more sensitive to current economic conditions than small and mid-sized companies," said Ahu Yildirmaz, VP and head of the ADP Research Institute. "Over the past year, businesses with less than 500 employees have created nearly 80 percent of new jobs."
Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, "Job growth remains strong despite the turmoil in the global economy and financial markets. Manufacturers and energy companies are reducing payrolls, but job gains across all other industries remain robust. The U.S. economy remains on track to return to full employment by mid-year."
Here is a visualization of the two series over the previous twelve months.
The key difference between the two series is that the BLS series is for Nonfarm Payrolls while ADP tracks private employment.
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