Anticipated Data: De Manufacturers' Orders, ECB Policy, US Jobs
Saxo Bank | Mar 07, 2013 07:40AM ET
Thursday's key data releases include new factory orders for Germany, the European Central Bank's monetary policy announcement, and weekly jobless claims figures for the US. The Bank of England will also make an announcement on policy at 12:00 GMT.
Germany Manufacturers' Orders (11:00 GMT) Is the recent rough patch for the German economy giving way to stronger growth? Answering "yes" isn't going to be any easier if today's January update on new factory orders disappoints. That is not likely, according to the consensus forecast, which projects another month of respectable growth.
Today's report, a widely followed leading indicator, is a critical test for optimists. For the moment, there's a case for thinking that the trend is strengthening in 2013. January retail sales delivered a sizable upside surprise and Markit's purchasing managers index for manufacturing signaled growth (albeit weakly) in February for the first time in a year. If today's update on orders also brings word of stronger demand, the bulls will have another solid data point on their side. In turn, the first-quarter comparisons will remain on track for a positive upgrade.
EU Interest Rate Announcement (12:45 GMT) The European Central Bank is widely expected to keep its benchmark rate unchanged at 0.75 percent, but everyone is eager to hear how Mario Draghi and company will rationalise this choice. The bank's winter forecast, published last month, warned that recessionary conditions are likely to persist in 2013. It will be interesting to see how, or if, the ECB explains a no-change decision for monetary policy in the wake of its in-house prediction that the Eurozone this year will suffer a 0.3 percent contraction in real GDP.
Assuming the bank keeps its 0.75 percent rate, any changes in ECB economic projections will become that much more valuable for deciding what comes next for monetary policy. Pay close attention to today's commentary at the press conference and any updates to staff forecasts. Analysts say that ECB economists will pare the outlook for inflation and growth. In that case, downward revisions may be laying the groundwork for a rate cut at the next meeting or a new round of unconventional stimulus measures in the weeks ahead.
US Jobless Claims (13:30 GMT) Economists expect that weekly filings for unemployment benefits will tick higher in today's release, but that won't alter the declining trend of late that signals more slow growth for the labor market.
This leading indicator has been a reliable benchmark for estimating the near-path of payrolls and the economy generally. The year-over-year changes in weekly claims are especially helpful for projecting the trend in jobs creation. By that standard, recent history continues to look encouraging. The generally persistent fall in claims versus year-earlier levels implies that the labor market is still growing. In fact, that was the message in ADP's private payrolls report for February. Today's claims number will likely confirm the ADP data, providing a bit more confidence for anticipating that tomorrow's official payrolls release from the Labour Department will bring upbeat news too.
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