Another Way Of Looking At USD
Trader Moe | Sep 14, 2015 01:21AM ET
One way of looking at the dollar since its post-Volcker crash is as a big bottoming megaphone with the price now back at VWAP.
Because of the crash out of the Volcker high, the subsequent 60%ish retrace and return to the post-Volcker low, the dollar is now a favorite to head up to the megaphone top to retest the Volcker high.
Typically it would reverse a bit below that high but above the previous megaphone high, redrawing the megaphone top at this point to make it a bit less steep. Then it would retrace to at least VWAP again.
An alternate scenario is that the dollar could form a megaphone or triangle across the red megaphone VWAP (purple scenario). The dollar formed a multi-year megaphone across VWAP before taking off upwards to its 2001 high.
The Dollar Formed a Megaphone (Orange) Across its Red Megaphone VWAP from the Late 1990s into 2000
The dollar has put in a Neely trend change signal (its March 18 crash) since its melt-up to this level, but the trend could now be sideways instead of up.
The dollar is paused at its long-term downward trend line.
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