The Correction Took Its Toll: USD, Bitcoin, Ethereum And Litecoin
Vladimir Smerkis | Jul 13, 2017 10:10AM ET
The overwhelming market correction last week took its toll on the mood of altcoins holders. BTC was as well subject to correction, yet it was not such drastic.
Currently, the following situation has established:
- The $2,300 support zone has formed and been persistent hitherto.
- BTC currently outperforms the market, which is predictable as investors massively rush to BTC from altoints
Should we neglect general market moods, from the fundamental viewpoint, Segwit and related rumors currently push the price. Seemingly, investors are anticipating news that is why the price is trading in the range between $2,250 and $2,544 from the outset of July
Ideas to follow:
- The $2,300 support zone is strong: it was tested four times and four times it exhibited its power. The probability to hit $2,200 is much lower than $2,544.
- In case negative news come out and the price starts to fall, it is likely to decrease abruptly to $2,000 or even $1,900. This is feasible as the price might hit marginal positions and stop-loss orders will be executed.
Still, the probability of this scenario remains low.
Currently, the following targets are set for BTC: $2,544, $2,724, $2,880
Given the overwhelming market correction, the price of ETH penetrated $225 support zone and remained lower afterwards. As such, $225 has become a new support zone. The graph of ETC shows the retest, which is generally a negative sign for ETH holders.
The following scenarios should be considered:
- The support zone has been able to withstand the pressure of traders. A new support zone at $175 is being set up.
- Another test of support level.
- The least possible scenario suggests deep falling to $125 eschewing potential support zone at $175.
From the technical viewpoint, the possibility of the first scenario is the highest. The second scenario is possible only if the market receives positive impetus such as good news, Vitalik’s speeches etc. Fundamentally, ETH’s price fall positively affects technical side of ethereum ecosystem - as the price of gas decreases, many contracts might be executed at a considerably lower price. At the same time, the token values of many companies that went on ICO using ethereum blockchain are pegged to its base currency - ETH, so that the decrease of price directly affects the capitalization of these companies.
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Heightened volatility at LTC/USD limits all endeavours to build globally strong levels of support and resistance. Locally, the support level is $42, the resistance level is $55. But if we take a look at shorter trading time intervals, indeed $48 resembles a good support zone.
The following scenarios should be considered:
- Tests of $42. In this case trading volumes should be closely considered and monitored. It is very likely that this level will become the support zone after all.
- A rise to $52, which is also a possible scenario. However, it will be harder to trade it without a good entry point so that risk/profit ratio remained acceptable.
- A further decrease beyond $42 as well as sudden rise in price above $55 are almost unlikely scenarios, from the current view.
As a result, the best scenarios for a trader will be tests of $42 since a good entry point might be set up there. Should the price follow the second scenario, it is advisable to stay out of the market.
News and fundamental factors at BTC remain the same, they could be checked on in the previous market reviews.
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