ADP: U.S. Job Growth Edges Lower To A Moderate Pace In August
James Picerno | Aug 31, 2016 09:22AM ET
US private-sector payrolls increased by a moderate 177,000 in August, according to the said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and head of the ADP Research Institute.
Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, which produces the data with ADP, added that “the American job machine continues to hum along. Job creation remains strong, with most industries and companies of all sizes adding solidly to their payrolls. The U.S. economy will soon be at full employment.”
Today’s update follows news earlier in the week that private-sector wage growth and consumer confidence have improved recently. Note, however, that ADP’s estimate of job growth in August is below the 12-month average–+192,000–for monthly changes.
Also, the year-over-year increase for payrolls dipped to 1.92% last month, which is close to the slowest annual gain in three years. ADP’s numbers still point to a growing labor market in the near term, but today’s update reminds that the trend continues to decelerate.
Economists are looking for a comparable rise in private payrolls for August in Friday’s official jobs report from the government. Econoday.com’s consensus forecast calls for an increase of 175,000 in workers at US companies via the Labor Dept.’s estimate for last month.
If the projection holds, private payrolls will advance by 1.95%, slightly faster than the annual gains in the previous three months but still near a three-year low.
The bottom line: positive momentum continues to support the US labor market, but growth continues to decelerate, albeit slightly.
The comparatively strong gains in June and July by the government’s reckoning implied that the expansion of payrolls would accelerate in the second half, but today’s numbers from ADP suggest that growth will probably remain moderate.
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