ADP Says US Private Payrolls Up 188k In June
James Picerno | Jul 04, 2013 12:47AM ET
Private-sector payrolls increased by a net 188,000 last month, according to thehere , for instance). The news that the economy is holding up is a shock for those who prefer drama to clear-eyed econometric analysis. Even so, nothing's perfect. Everything could change tomorrow, a risk factor that no one can ever dismiss.
It’s okay to speculate about what may be lurking around the corner. If you do so prudently, forecasting can be quite valuable in fact. The mistake is looking at predictions in a vacuum and ignoring the published numbers in hand. For reasons that we’ll leave to psychologists to explain, there’s quite a lot of this behavior in business cycle analysis, i.e., a preference for looking ahead without looking at what we know today. For those who can’t see the folly of this bias, it’s a safe assumption at this late date that they’ll never see the light.
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