April ADP Employment Preview: Increase To 196,000 Expected
James Picerno | May 03, 2016 08:14AM ET
Private nonfarm payrolls in the US are projected to increase by 196,000 (seasonally adjusted) in April over the previous month in tomorrow’s update of the ADP Employment Report, based on The Capital Spectator’s average point forecast for several econometric estimates. The average projection reflects a fractionally lower gain vs. the previous month’s robust increase.
The Capital Spectator’s average ADP forecast for April is in line with two estimates based on recent surveys of economists.
Here’s a review of the numbers, followed by brief summaries of the methodologies behind the forecasts that are used to calculate The Capital Spectator’s average prediction:
ARIMA: An “forecast” package.
ES: An “forecast” package.
VAR-6: A “vars” package.
TRI: A model that’s based on combining point forecasts, along with the upper and lower prediction intervals (at the 95% confidence level), via a technique known as “triangle” package.
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