New USD/CHF High Only Unexpected Event Yesterday
Ian Copsey | Sep 01, 2015 12:15AM ET
I didn’t really expect too much yesterday, and that’s what we got. Even the U.S. equity markets seem to have backed off from making any break of the tiny range. There could be a good chance that we see the same today, although hopefully extending the range a bit more.
The only unexpected event was a new high in USD/CHF – even if only a marginal one. It was such a minimal follow-through higher that it could be considered as part of the recent rally. As such, it’s not really a break I’d want to follow just yet because EUR/USD has hardly made any impact on the upside. Meanwhile, GBP/USD decided it would remain in range. It kinda suggests that we’ll see another slow day and probably on the dollar downside.
AUD/USD, in a show of independence, extended its losses as expected and actually looks as if it will remain autonomous and extend losses, but the structures over the past few months have shown a greater reluctance to robust moves. However, I do feel this will maintain a modestly bearish outlook.
The JPY pairs were lacklustre once again, USD/JPY seeing a deeper pullback from 121.63 that expected and has made the outlook less rosy. That isn’t to mean that it’ll collapse, and I do still see some upside pressure left, but we’ll have to approach with caution. This left EUR/JPY gasping for air and drifting lower. Still, I feel that there’s probably a stronger chance of gains.
Slow to steady again today, but I think we’ll begin to see stronger moves by tomorrow or Thursday
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