A Turning Point For The Secular Bear Market?
BuzzInForex | Aug 26, 2013 02:51AM ET
After the minutes of the Federal Reserve have expressed all the possible uncertainty about the evolution of the U.S. monetary policy in the coming months, the macro data of the coming week do not seem to be so important to move the feedback of operators on bond and forex. The bond is now very close to the psychological area of 4% on T-bonds and 3% of T-note that could represent a real turning point for the secular bear market interest rates. As for EurUsd, the resistance of area 1.34 is still standing, last level before 1.39/1.40. Concerning the macro data of this week, focus on durable goods orders on August 26th, consumer confidence and the Shiller index on price of houses on August 27th, the revision of GDP for the second quarter on August 29th, personal income and spending on August 30th.
ITALY-GERMANY SPREAD MAY BE THE NEW TARGET
The German elections are approaching in Europe and the IFO scheduled for release on August 27th will be a good reason for speculation. The spread between Italian BTPs and German Bunds could be under pressure due to the Italian retail sales scheduled for August 28th, the German unemployment on August 29th and the Italian one on August 30th.
THE MONTH OF JPY IS COMING TO AN END
Japan is always a leader with lots of macro data coming this week. First of all, on August 29th retail sales and then the unemployment on August 30th, together with inflation and industrial production. Considering that at the end of August the favorable month of Jpy is coming to an end, we must take note of an underlying structural weakness for the Japanese currency that, at this point, becomes a good trading opportunity especially against the dollar. For this reason, we would go long on UsdJpy.
EMERGING COUNTRIES
The darkest period of the year for emerging currencies is also coming to an end, and this should result in a lower voltage phase for local currencies. Among the more relevant ones, we remember Hungary on August 27th with the decision on interest rates and unemployment, while Poland on August 26th with unemployment and retail sales that will be the prelude to the GDP data on August 30th.
The decision of monetary policy in Brazil is much awaited and is scheduled for August 28th, and will prelude the data on GDP on August 30th; the view of the central bank is fundamental to understand what defenses will be take to stem the decline of the Real. The economic growth will also be a focus for South Africa, as we will be able to know the GDP on August 27th. Technically, the Rand seems to be quite interesting to start speculating against Euro, and for this reason we would enter short on EurZar.
Get The News You Want
SHORT EUR/ZAR AT 13.70 STOP 14.50
Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.