A Look At S&P 500 Sector Estimates, Q3 And Q4, 2020
Brian Gilmartin | Jan 26, 2020 12:13AM ET
One aspect of the IBES by Refinitiv data that caught my eye today was what is happening with Q3 and Q4 ’20 S&P 500 sector growth estimates:
While Q4 ’19 earnings are important to look at for “upside / downside” surprises and guidance, you have to take a longer view with the earnings data and keep an eye on revisions a few quarters out.
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Note the Energy and Financial sectors for both Q3 and Q4 ’20. That upward revision to the expected Energy sector earnings growth rate for Q4 ’20 is—ummm—material, from 15.8% to 39%.
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The financial sector too is seeing positive revisions. The sector has been punk, probably due to the flat yield curve since the Q4 ’19 rally.
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I wonder if that’s a typo (i.e. the expected Energy growth rate jump). Also, look at the upward revisions to the S&P 500 EPS growth rate in general for the 3rd and 4th quarter: usually in this time frame, 9-12 months out, the growth rate revisions are usually lower.
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Is this a call on the Presidential election? Let’s track it for a few weeks and see what happens to the growth rate(s) mentioned.
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Just wanted to leave readers with something to ponder since the weekly update won’t be out till later this weekend.
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