A Look At April's National Activity Index
Doug Short | May 20, 2013 10:21AM ET
According to the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index, April economic activity slowed from March, now at -0.53, down from March's -0.23. This index has been negative (meaning below-trend growth) for eleven of the past fourteen months. Here are the opening paragraphs from the report: Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to –0.53 in April from –0.23 in March. Three of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index decreased from March, and none of the categories made a positive contribution to the index in April. The index's three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, ticked up to –0.04 in April from –0.05 in March. April's CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was very near its historical trend. The economic growth reflected in this level of the CFNAI-MA3 suggests subdued inflationary pressure from economic activity over the coming year. The CFNAI Diffusion Index increased to –0.03 in April from –0.04 in March. Thirty-two of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in April, while 53 made negative contributions. Forty-four indicators improved from March to April, while 41 indicators deteriorated. Of the indicators that improved, eighteen made negative contributions. [Understanding the CFNAI Components , which I update and post a few hours after the CFNAI is released.
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