A Flaw In The Tepper Analysis

 | May 15, 2013 12:32AM ET

When David Tepper speaks, the market listens.

In Autumn, 2010, Tepper, the highly successful billionaire hedge fund manager, These effects are economically meaningful."

  • The entire mechanism for analyzing QE effects is mistaken. Why continue to listen to those who have been wrong for years? Maybe a new model is needed.
  • There is also the flip side.

    1. The ending of QE is not as scary as portrayed by most "pop economist" pundits.
    2. Since the initial impact of QE was an "overbid" the winding down will be as well.
    Investment Implication

    David Tepper is right on all of the key points.

    • He is accurate on Fed policy.
    • He is accurate on overall market valuation – the equity risk premium.
    • He is accurate on the right posture for most investors.

    Why do I disagree? I am not trying to pick nits. I mean to analyze what is actually happening, explaining why investors should not fixate on Fed policy.

    Tepper is meeting the critics on their own terms – discussing net debt, even if that is the wrong measure. He is catering to the popular mistaken belief. I disagree with his analysis, but not the investment implication.

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