A Deeply Oversold Market No Longer Expects Rate Hikes In 2019
Dr. Duru | Dec 18, 2018 04:01AM ET
AT40 = 10.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (oversold day #2)
AT200 = 15.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (new 34-month low)
VIX = 24.5
Short-term Trading Call: bullish (caveats below!)
Commentary
The week started as I expected based on the technical setup on Friday that I discussed in the last Above the 40 post . The day itself was wilder than I expected, but I am not even sure why I continue to get surprised. The S&P 500 (SPY (NYSE:SPY)) sold off quickly in the first 15 minutes of trading. Gap buyers stepped in and managed to shove the index through the gap and into a fractional gain. The bear burden took over from there and unleashed nearly constant selling. A sharp bounce in the final 10 minutes of trading closed the S&P 500 with a 2.1% loss.
The S&P 500 (SPY) lost 2.1% and sliced through the April intraday low on its way to a a 14-month closing low.
The NASDAQ Composite and the Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:QQQ) decisively took out their November lows. These tech-laden indices avoided the fate of the S&P 500 which set a new 2018 low.
The NASDAQ lost 2.3% and closed at a 13-month low.
The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) lost 2.2% and closed at an 8-month low.
The volatility index, the VIX, finally delivered a strong gain of 13.4%. Still, the volatility faders were able to put a lid on the VIX right at 26, exactly where the fear gauge came to a halt twice during the early part of December. The robots left me unconvinced that the VIX is done going up. Maybe the Federal Reserve may save the day this week, but the VIX is “due” to at least test the highs from October’s sell-off if not blast completely through those levels.
Get The News You Want
The volatility index, the VIX, magically stop going up right at 26. The VIX ended the day with a 13.4% gain.
The trading action allowed me to execute all my plans from the last Above the 40 post . The plunge in QQQ allowed me to take a healthy profit on my put spread (and of course I was left wishing I had the guts to buy all those puts outright). I was able to accumulate call options on the ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures (UVXY) before the big surge. I took profits on one call and held the other (with plans to sell on Tuesday). Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) even rallied as much as 1% and gave me a cheaper entry point on a put which I sold later in the day (recall that NFLX is one of the stocks I target for fades on rallies). The spike in the VIX finally gave me the “green light” to start my oversold trading. I loaded up on shares of ProShares Ultra S&P 500 (NYSE:SSO) and accordingly dropped the “cautious” from my short-term bullish trading call.
The stock market is now deeply oversold. AT40 (T2108), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs), plunged to 10.9%. The market is not quite at the single-digit low it reached at the peak of panic in October, but the near halving of AT40 sure looks violent enough to qualify for the beginning of a bottom, if not THE bottom for this latest cycle of selling.
AT40 (T2108) was almost cut in half as it fell from 19.7% to 10.9%.
AT200 (T2107), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs, dropped to a fresh 34-month low of 15.8% as the longer-term underpinnings of the market continue to deteriorate.
AT200 (T2107) plunged to 15.8% and set a new 34-month low.
Neither AT40 nor AT200 can tell us anything new if they continue lower. What matters more now is the duration of the oversold period and the nature of the bounce OUT of oversold conditions. Most troubling about the above picture is AT200’s failure to recover nearly as well as AT40 did coming out of the last oversold period. With many 200DMAs now in decline, that kind of tepid bounce is a bearish sign for the longer-term outlook.
h3The Federal Reserve: Hero or Zero?/h3
The Federal Reserve issues its next decision on monetary policy on Wednesday, December 19th. I have heard hopes that the Fed will decide to wait on hiking rates either during this meeting or after this meeting. The growing drumbeat of fear over tightening monetary policy is quite a turn of events from earlier in the year when most dismissed the impact of the Fed trickling rates higher from historically low levels. Those days were the tones from a bull market when bad news meant little except another buying opportunity. Now, the market is in bear market mode. Fear reigns and the search for hope is far-reaching. Here is an example of the argument for a halt to rate hikes from Jason Furman, the former Chair of the White House Counsel of Economic Advisers (click to watch in YouTube).
I think the calls for a pause in December are extreme. They certainly are way out of step with market expectations. a month ago with the stock market a little higher. So if the Fed decides to back down from a December rate hike, I think the market will come away with a negative interpretation: the Fed expects an economic slowdown. Why else would the Fed suddenly back down from a planned and well-anticipated rate hike? Granted, the current market sell-off might put enough fear in the Fed to take such an extreme measure.
So how about 2019?
I think most pundits at this point agree the Fed needs to take a pause after December and take time to reassess conditions. If the Fed hikes, most people are still expecting a capitulation in the form of very dovish Fed-speak about the go-forward plan. Incredibly, financial markets no longer expect ANY rate hike in 2019; exactly a month ago the odds favored June as the month to enjoy the first rate hike of 2019 .
To read the table below recall that the current Fed funds rate is targeted at 2.0 to 2.25% (200-225 basis points). Assuming the Fed sticks to hikes of 25 basis points, then the next rate hike after December will target the 2.5 to 2.75% range. Those odds for that range NEVER go over 50% for the entirety of 2019! Calculate those odds by summing up the probabilities starting at the 250 to 275 column and going right. Technically, that sum represents the odds of the Fed at least hitting that target by the associated meeting date.
Remarkably, the Fed Fund Futures no longer price in a rate hike in 2019!
The Fed is officially trapped into going dovish in this coming meeting one way or another. If the Fed sticks by its to-date more hawkish tone, then it will face the wrath of an even more skittish market. Ironically, because the market is pricing in this dovish talk, any subsequent post-Fed rally will essentially be a sell-on-the-news moment and will usher in fears of an economic slowdown anyway. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will have to summon the verbal skills of a master orator!
h3 CHART REVIEWS/h3American Express (NYSE:AXP)
AXP joined the growing majority of stocks trading below their respective 200DMAs. This support level held up like magic during the vicious market sell-off in October. The high-volume, high magnitude breakdown is bearish for AXP. I expect 50DMA resistance to hold on the next bounce.
American Express (AXP) lost a whopping 4.3% and closed below its 200DMA for the first time in 8 months.
Walmart (NYSE:WMT)
WMT is VERY tempting here. The stock finally finished reversing its gains that began with large post-earnings gap up in August. WMT was wonderfully contrarian throughout October, but it peaked in November short of its all-time high set in January. Now, WMT is clinging to the top 15.8% of stocks still trading above their respective 200DMAs.
Walmart (WMT) lost 1.2% and closed right on top of its 200DMA. The stock essentially completed a full reversal of August’s big gap up.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
When we look back on this era, I think Bitcoin will be one of many signposts for the end of the super easy money era ushered in by the financial crisis. Cryptocurrencies were fueled by what seemed like unbounded enthusiasm and “market caps” that gained billions like the weight of participants in a pie eating contest. That unbounded enthusiasm has almost been drained out of the system, leaving mainly the die-hard advocates to keep up the fight for relevancy outside their specialized world.
For example, it seems that CNBC’s Fast Money is FINALLY winding down its unabashed love of cryptocurrencies. In Monday’s show, Fast Money rewound the tape on all the Bitcoin bulls who a year ago pulled out their rulers and extrapolated out astronomical prices for the end of 2018. In the following segment, host Melissa Lee barely disguises her deepening skepticism as a crypto permabull (Spencer Bogart from Blockchain Capital) repeats a familiar refrain during the current crash: current prices actually do not matter because the long-term is bright, a rebound is inevitable and even around the corner, and the technology is making fantastic advances. I duly noted that Spencer distanced Bitcoin from the fundamentals which bind early-stage companies to rational (traditional) pricing mechanisms; I read this to mean that Bitcoin can and will take on any price market participants chose.
NOW I am a bit more interested in Bitcoin (and other cryptos) than I have ever been. I am still nowhere close to buying, but I am encouraged by the accumulating signs that the mania phase of crypto and blockchain looks like it is finally waning. Recent Google (NASDAQ:GOOGL) search trends are also notable. The recent bump in interest is still tiny compared to the massive surge at the peak, but the recent rise is still being sustained during the current price extreme. As a reminder, the running hypothesis is that a jump in Google search trends at a price extreme marks the imminent end of that price extreme…in this case, a sustainable or at least tradable bottom is taking shape if the hypothesis remains correct.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) popped but it is like a pin dropping in a den of bears. The downtrending 20DMA is holding as resistance.
Source:
Google Trends finally came to life after Bitcoin (BTC/USD) plunged in mid-November as part of a major breakdown and new 2018 lows. That search interest is still at an elevated level a month later as BTC/USD continues to sell off.
“Above the 40” uses the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) to assess the technical health of the stock market and to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. Abbreviated as AT40, Above the 40 is an alternative label for “T2108” which was created by T2108 Resource Page . AT200, or T2107, measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs.
Active AT40 (T2108) periods: Day #2 under 20% (2nd oversold day), Day #4 under 30%, Day #6 under 40%, Day #56 under 50%, Day #72 under 60%, Day #125 under 70%
Daily AT40 (T2108)
Black line: AT40 (T2108) (% measured on the right)
Red line: Overbought threshold (70%); Blue line: Oversold threshold (20%)
Weekly AT40 (T2108)
Be careful out there!
Full disclosure: long SSO, long UVXY call
Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.