A Close Look At Japan's Near-Term Markets
Erik Swarts | Oct 07, 2013 01:35PM ET
Since we pointed out at the end of September that Japan and the Nikkei were near another inflection point and closely following silver's post QE2 breakdown, Japan's tracking ETF (EWJ) and the Nikkei are down about 4% and 6%, respectively. Should the comparative continue to be prescient toward the pivot, the Nikkei will trade around it's 50-day sma for a few sessions before failing again.
The biggest contrast we see from a currency perspective is that the yen has slowly grinded higher, versus the dollar's tensioned and coiled move out of the August 2011 low. This adds to the yen's vulnerability in the short-term as it works its way above the breakout.
All things considered, we remain bullish over the intermediate and long-term time frames in equities, but would expect the SPX to remain in a trading range (above 1577 for October) as the yen reverts higher.
note: Due to the magnitude of the comparative break with silver in 2011, we would caution against extrapolating a proportional downside move with the Nikkei and Japan. The utility of this - as well as most comparatives for us - is with the intuition it might impart of a markets potential pivot and trajectory. Always a moving target and always qualifying the quantitative as we go.
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