A Change In The Wind Now Visible In Markets

 | Feb 22, 2013 01:58AM ET

T2108 Status

: 62.9% (ends a 1-day overbought period
VIX Status: 14.5
General (Short-term) Trading Call: Sell more longs, initiate shorts if none on-hand.

Commentary
T2108 plunged 10.5%, dropping to levels last seen in December, 2012. Not only did this plunge end a brief 1-day overbought period, it officially seals the history of the 31-day overbought period that began 2013. the Black Friday trade I pointed out last November), buy only when (if?) the correction gets steep; my chart of the S&P 500 reminds you of my first downside target. Obviously, oversold conditions will get bought, but that is not on my radar right now.

Daily T2108 vs the S&P 500

Black line: T2108 (measured on the right); Green line: S&P 500 (for comparative purposes)
Red line: T2108 Overbought (70%); Blue line: T2108 Oversold (20%)
Weekly T2108

Be careful out there!

Disclosure: long VXX shares and puts, long SSO puts, net short British pound and the Australian dollar, long Japanese yen

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