A Bearish Price Forecast For Copper In 2014
MetalMiner | Jan 09, 2014 10:21AM ET
MetalMiner’s monthly Copper MMI® was the best performing of the metal price index series this month, registering a value of 92 in January, an increase of 3.4 percent from 89 in December.
The LME 3-month price of primary went up 4.9 percent, from $7,029 to $7,370 per metric ton. Copper moved up after meeting support levels at the end of November, drawing a modest uptrend since June.
However, looking at the long-term picture, so far we just see this mid-term uptrend as a retracing of the overall falling trend:
We expect copper to keep gaining support in the short term , but will likely finding resistance around $7,500 per metric ton. In the long term, with the picture looking pretty similar for the rest of the base metals, we are copper-bearish.
What This Means For Metal Buyers
Despite rising prices in previous months, it may seem risky for copper buyers to take long positions in presence of an overall falling market.
Key Price Drivers
The price of US copper producer grade 110 finished the month up 6.2 percent, while grade 102 reached a 5.9 percent increase. It was a strong month for the Japanese copper cash price. The metal posted a 5.7 percent increase.
The primary copper cash price closed the month at $7,387 per metric ton after gaining 5.1 percent on the LME. After dropping the previous month, the Chinese copper cash price prices rose 2.8 percent. The price of Chinese copper wire rose 2.5 percent after falling the previous month.
Chinese bright copper scrap fell 0.3 percent. Korean copper strip experienced a flat month.
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