8 Monster Stock Market Predictions: Gaps To Be Filled
Michael Kramer | Jun 27, 2022 01:17AM ET
Stocks had a solid finish to the week, with the S&P 500 rising by around 3% on Friday. There is probably some more room for the market to increase to start the week after it cleared resistance and filled a gap on Friday.
I had been waiting to see what happened with the index at 3,815, but the market blew right through that level on Friday and never even gave me a chance to look.
h2 1. S&P 500/h2At this point, the S&P 500 appears to be targeting that gap around 4,020, and that may very well be where we are going to start this week. After that gap is filled, I think the market starts turning lower again after a brief period of consolidation.
The option cycle is working out nicely, and typically after the rally completes, the market tends to stall and consolidate for a few days. I wouldn’t be surprised if that happened again through the July 4th holiday weekend.
That would take us up to the FOMC minutes’ cycle, which should be released around July 6.
Additionally, reserve balances fell to a new low this week, implying that the S&P 500 is likely to make a new low over the next 2 to 3 weeks.
The VVIX is getting towards the lower end of its trading range, suggesting it is getting pretty cheap again to be buying protection since implied volatility is getting reasonably low.
The VVIX has been steadily trending lower since peaking in early 2022. We will have to see if the VVIX bottoms this time around 85.
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I think rates may be set up to take their next move higher. The 10-year had a massive move upward, and to this point, it appears the move down may have only been a retracement, falling to the 61.8% retracement level at 3%.
The iShares TIPS Bond ETF (NYSE:TIP) would agree that rates are going higher as it quickly approaches its uptrend and is getting close to breaking that trend.
It would imply that the TIP ETF revisits its lows in the not-to-distance future and probably makes new ones.
Copper prices have been collapsing, which is an influential gauge for the global economy’s health, and bears watching during the week. With the price of copper hovering around a critical support level, a further breakdown could indicate a severe amount of global slowing.
Roblox Corp (NYSE:RBLX) continues to look strong and rebounding nicely, as momentum in the RSI remains very bullish. The stock also crossed above resistance at $35.50 for the first time since mid-April. The next significant technical resistance level doesn’t come until $45ish.
Boeing (NYSE:BA) is also seeing a lot of bullish momentum, with an RSI that has broken a downtrend. The stock is now below a significant downtrend, with an opportunity for it to climb back to $155.
Momentum in PayPal (NASDAQ:PYPL) continues to grow more positive, with an RSI that is very close to breaking out and a stock approaching the top of the falling wedge. It just needs to clear $83 at this point for a much larger rally.
DocuSign (NASDAQ:DOCU) also appears to be trying to make a turn for the better, with an RSI in a clear uptrend, pointing towards higher momentum, and the potential to fill a gap around $87.
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