3 Trade-War Winners For 7% Dividends And Big Upside

 | Dec 06, 2018 05:55AM ET

Monday’s major jump in stocks is the beginning of a trend that will catch a lot of investors by surprise: fundamental strength thanks to trade war fears abating.

We aren’t out of the woods yet, as Tuesday showed us. While the market cheered the tentative cease-fire between Xi and Trump on Monday, the lack of details and confusion hit the market on Tuesday.

And that’s a good thing, because it’s set up investors for an opportunity to buy equities cheap before the relief rally around the corner.

Trade Ceasefire Opens Buy Window …

The way I see it, the trade-war ceasefire is likely the beginning of a deal coming down the pipe in the next three months. That means the market’s biggest anxiety is nearly over—and we’re nicely set up for more upside!

You’re probably wondering why I’m so confident.

For one, the fear that the US and China, two of the largest trading partners on earth, would fail to reach some kind of deal has always been irrational.

Second, the recent market stumble has been way out of step with the sky-high earnings growth we’ve seen (S&P 500 profits rose 25.9% in the third quarter, even stronger than the record-high growth in the first half of the year) and breakneck sales growth (revenues jumped 9.3% in Q3, again above expectations).

But the best thing about the market now is something we hear nothing about: tardy fund managers.

… And the Race Back in Is On!

Here’s what I mean: market hysteria resulted in a steady selloff of assets among equity funds, and that didn’t stop, even as the data got better. For instance, Thanksgiving week saw fund managers dump stocks all around, resulting in $8.5 billion in cash flowing out of equity funds for the week.

All told, it was the worst Thanksgiving week for fund outflows since 2011.

This is a clear case of late selling on the trade-war noise. Now that a deal looks like it’s in the offing, fund managers will slowly buy back in.

And you know what that means: rising stock prices. We’re already seeing them:

(Some) Fund Managers Get the Memo