3 Things The Charts Are Saying About The 10-Year T-Bill

 | Jun 30, 2017 02:39PM ET

Three things the technical setup is telling us about the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield:

  1. The Momentum low of the correction after last year’s advance from 1.32% (7/06/16) to 2.64% (12/16/16) was established on 4/18/17 at 2.17%. All of the downside action in yield thereafter into mid-late June 2017 has been unconfirmed by Yield Momentum.
  2. On 6/14/17, Yield hit its corrective-low print at 2.10%, off the December 2016 high at 2.64%, which was accompanied by divergent, much higher Momentum readings. In addition, the 2.10% low represented a 38% retracement of the entire prior major upleg from 1.32% to 2.64%.
  3. The 6/26 minor pullback-yield low at 2.12% followed by a sharp upmove to 2.25% on 6/28 represents a successful retest of the 6/14 low at 2.10% and a successful retest of the dominant up-trendline off of the 7/06/16 historic low yield of 1.32%. From a big-picture technical perspective, benchmark 10-year Treasury Yield appears to be in very promising technical condition ahead of the initiation of a new upleg that extends its first bull leg from 1.32% to 2.64% toward a projected next target zone of 3.00%-3.15%.