3 Questions Fed Chair Powell Needs To Answer At Jackson Hole
Kathy Lien | Aug 26, 2021 02:58PM ET
The U.S. dollar traded sharply higher against all of the major currencies on Thursday on the back of stronger data. There was an upward revision to second quarter GDP and, while the increase was less than expected, the direction of the adjustment was positive for the greenback. Jobless claims ticked up, but the more closely watched four-week average dropped to its lowest level since the pandemic began. All eyes are on Friday’s Federal Reserve Jackson Hole symposium. We heard from a few central bankers this morning. Their comments were relatively hawkish. Fed President Esther George said it is time to begin adjusting accommodation, while Fed President James Bullard called on the Fed to get going on taper and finish in the first quarter of 2022. Both are non-voting members of the FOMC this year, but it is clear there are policy-makers like Bullard who do not share Powell’s view that inflation will moderate.
Fed Chairman Jay Powell speaks at 10 a.m. ET on Friday and investors will be watching for answers to three key questions:
1. Will taper begin in September?
2. Is Delta or inflation the bigger concern?
3. What do the central bank’s post-pandemic policies look like?
Jackson Hole is an important venue for Federal Reserve policies. At last year’s conference, Powell announced that the central bank would no longer raise interest rates on labor market and inflation targets alone. It wanted evidence that prices were rising sustainably, which could mean allowing CPI to exceed its 2% target for a period of time.
A month ago, investors expected the Fed to set out details for reducing bond purchases at Jackson Hole, but the rapidly spreading Delta variant complicates the central bank’s policy plans. On the one hand, the labor market recovery is strong and inflation is on the rise, but on the other, lockdowns and new restrictions in other nations pose a risk to the global recovery. Evidence is growing that vaccine efficacy is waning and a third booster will be needed. Until that becomes widely available, medical experts are concerned that infections could surge in the fall.
The most important question is when taper will begin. The persistent rally in stocks are a sign that investors think the Fed could kick the can down the road and delay announcing its taper plans to September. Over the past few weeks, there have been widespread reports of deterioration in manufacturing and service-sector activity in all corners of the world, including Australia, the U.K., the Eurozone and the U.S. The Delta variant is posing a risk to the global recovery, and some investors believe that the Fed could wait a few more weeks before signalling taper. There will be more information on the economic impact of Delta and recent shifts in inflation trends (oil and lumber prices have come down sharply). Also, while the labor market is strong, there will be one more jobs report before the September FOMC meeting. There are also two more policy meetings before the end of the year in November and December, so the Fed could wait a few more weeks before providing clear guidance on when it will start reducing asset purchases.
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We know that Powell is less worried about inflation than some of his peers, so if he feels that Delta is the bigger risk and opts to be more conservative and puts off signalling taper, stocks will soar, yields will fall and the U.S. dollar will weaken. On the other hand, if he feels that a one-month delay won’t make much of a difference because tapering this year is inevitable so they should begin in September, stocks will descent from their highs, yields will rise and the U.S. dollar will extend its gains against all of the major currencies.
Although personal income and spending numbers are due for release in the morning, traders should expect quiet consolidation before Powell speaks at Jackson Hole. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney delivers a lunchtime keynote address that could also be market-moving for the British pound.
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