3 Numbers: Tailwinds For EU Inflation, EU Jobless, US Manufacturing
James Picerno | Mar 02, 2015 01:48AM ET
The first business day of March roars like a lion in terms of data releases. Keeping on top of all the fresh numbers will be a challenge today. The data deluge includes several key Eurozone updates: the flash estimate of consumer price inflation for February and new figures on unemployment for January. The main event for the US is the estimate continues to inch higher too. The latest estimate for this year's first quarter GDP, for instance, equates with quarter-on-quarter growth of nearly 0.4%, which reflects a slight improvement over last year’s Q4 gain of 0.3%.
It’s still a weak recovery - yes, it’s okay to use that label, or so recent data tells us. The key hazard is that the revival doesn’t last. What could derail the rebound? Ah, where does one begin in the tortured realm of Eurozone economics?
Only time will tell if the revival will roll on in the quarters to come. But for the moment, the incoming data looks encouraging, more so than we’ve seen in nearly a year. Today’s headline inflation data may suggest otherwise, but the deflationary winds will start to ease in the months ahead, according to the Euro-coin benchmark and similar metrics.
said last week. That may not be obvious in today’s unemployment numbers, but at this point the change in the directional trend is the critical issue against a snapshot of the recent past. As long as the forward-looking metrics brighten, it’s reasonable to assume that the lagging numbers, including today’s jobless update, will follow.
14:45 GMT ) is expected to support Williamson’s analysis. The consensus forecast calls for a slight easing in the ISM data for February - 53.0 against 53.5 in January, according to Briefing.com. But that's still comfortably above the neutral 50.0 mark. The pace has cooled a bit relative to recent history, but today's numbers are on track to reaffirm that the positive momentum remains intact.
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Disclosure: Originally published at Saxo Bank TradingFloor.com
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