3 Numbers: German Revival On Track, U.S. Mortgages, U.S. Durable Goods
James Picerno | Mar 25, 2015 02:08AM ET
Wednesday is a relatively slow day for scheduled economic releases, although one update that will receive wide attention in Europe is Ifo’s survey numbers that track the mood in Germany's business community. Later, a couple of US reports will shed more light on the prospects for a spring revival in the macro trend - new mortgage applications and the monthly update on durable goods orders.
March estimate of the France Composite PMI reflected a second month of growth, it’s still a thin expansion and one that slipped closer to flat lining in the latest update.
Nonetheless, one thing is certain: any chance for a brighter macro trend for the Eurozone continues to rest rather heavily on the state of the German economy. On that score, at least, the future appears to be moving in a positive direction. That said, the February round of Ifo’s current situation data dipped slightly even as the outlook numbers posted another gain. Is that a sign that it’s still best to keep optimism in check overall? Good question, and one that may be answered with today’s update.
noted the chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, the group that publishes the numbers on existing sales.
By that standard, the sight of even a slight rise in transactions is encouraging. With the harsh winter fading, the acid test for the view that weather’s to blame is now in focus, starting with today’s update on mortgage applications. The weekly numbers on this front have been rather dim lately. New applications have been trending lower since February, falling 3.9% in the last update.
The latest monthly updates on sales suggest that the spring buying season will enjoy a rebound. If so, we should start to see some improvement in the applications data. Spring, after all, officially arrived last week. Let’s see if there’s any sign of a thaw in demand for new mortgages.
advised.
Get The News You Want
Corroboration in today’s release would be a bullish sign. Analysts say there's a good chance we'll see firm data. The consensus forecast calls for a comparatively soft rise of 1% for headline orders for February, according to Briefing.com. That’s not particularly impressive, although at this stage the sight of follow-through demand is the key issue. Even a mild rise in February - a month that witnessed weakness in other corners of the economy—would be greeted with cheers.
Disclosure: Originally published at Saxo Bank TradingFloor.com
Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.