25 bps Cut Looks Imminent Based on CME Fed Watch

Key Statistics:

• Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, US Department of Labor
• Release Period: November 2024    
• Last Release Date: November 13, 2024,   
• Actual: 2.6% vs Forecast: 2.6%. Previous: 2.4%

NOVEMBER FORECAST = 2.7%

Release Date: December 10, 2024, at 08:30 AM ET.

Purpose:

It measures changes in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. Consumer prices account for most of the overall inflation. Inflation is important to the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate.

Key Highlights:

• US CPI expectation is 2.7% YoY headline inflation, 3.3% YoY “core” inflation.
• Headline inflation 12-month trailing average is 3.0.
• The fed inflation fight has stalled out in recent months.
• CME Fed watch is pointing at 85.8% probability of -25 bps rate cut by Fed on December 18, 2024.
• Bank of Canada rates are likely to show a -50-bps rate cut on Wednesday, as the jobless rate spiked to an 8-year high last Friday.
• The yield on benchmark US 10-year notes jumped 10 basis points to 4.23% from 4.13% since last week.
• US Stocks stalls ahead of CPI data; Dow falls for a fourth day. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 also dropped.
• Asian stocks slipped lower, and the USD snapped a three-day gain ahead of US Inflation data.

US Interest Rate Probabilities:

• US IR probabilities show about 88.9% of 25 bps cut on December 18, 2024.

Probabilities point to no rate cut by 72.3% on January 29, 2025.

FOMC Projections (DOT-PLOT):

• The Fed’s dot plot records each Fed official’s projection for the Fed Fund rate on a quarterly basis.

Blue dots indicate the median projections.

US 10Y Yields Technical View:

• US 10Y yields is most likely forming a very well-known technical pattern known as “Head-and-Shoulders”.
• The chart shows that 10Y yields are heading lower to 3.715% in the 6 to 8 months provided 4.51% contains the upside moves.

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Technical Analysis Perspective:

• The US Core inflation YoY has remained above 3.2% since August 2024.
• A key observation from the following chart suggests that if the core inflation rises higher from 3.2% to 3.3% like in August 1992, it takes a couple of months before it goes lower.
• From September 1992 the Fed kept the rates unchanged for a couple of months to bring the inflation down below 3% and raised rates once the inflation dropped to 2.8% in April 1994.
• Since August 2024 Core inflation has been maintaining 3.2 to 3.3% suggesting that Fed will have to be patient before the inflation meet their target of 2%.
• Fed may keep the rates unchanged for the next couple of meetings in 2025.

The US Core Inflation YoY chart overlayed with US Interest Rates:

Conclusion:

US 10Y yields suggest that the interest rate will drop in the medium-term, while core inflation staying above 3.2 to 3.3% in August 1992 forced Fed to hold the rate for quite a long time. We need more data to have a better understanding of the future Fed action.

A word of wisdom:

“The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent” is a quote by economist John Maynard Keynes that emphasizes the unpredictable nature of financial markets. The quote means that investors should not bet against the market, even when they believe it is mispriced or irrational, because it is difficult to predict when the market will correct itself. 

Written By: Ali Merchant