Mike (Mish) Shedlock | Jan 29, 2017 02:16AM ET
The GDPNow Model missed the mark pretty badly. Its latest forecast, on January 26, was 2.9% for fourth quarter, a number I thought way too high.
The latest FRBNY Nowcast , from January 20, was close at 2.1%. Let’s take a look at what happened.
Troubling Areas
Contribution Troubling Areas
Private Inventories Added 1% to 4th Quarter GDP
Hike Three Times? Really?
Pundits believe the Fed will hike three times this year. In contrast, I have stated I doubt the Fed hikes at all.
With GDP at 1.6% for the full year, really think the Fed will hike thrice?
Global exports have collapsed. And we have not yet seen the effects of Trump’s seriously misguided protectionist trade policy.
This GDP report along with recent economic reports should be very troubling to the Fed. Let’s see what “soft patch” nonsense they spew in next week’s FOMC meeting.
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