18 Currency Pairs: Long-Term Averages And Forecasts

The commonality to Currency markets and among the 18 pairs we trade weekly is long-term targets are within 300 pips, which means if achieved, not only price alignments but neutral currency prices as new trading ranges are firmly established. A settled price substitutes for neutrality as a settled price lacks significant movement ability.

AUD pairs as AUD/USD, AUD/JPY and AUD/CHF however are holdouts to the 300 target number as AUD/USD and AUD/CHF targets stand at 400 pips and AUD/JPY 500.

AUD/CHF shares the same commonality to NZD/CHF at 400 pips.

GBP/JPY is next in line from AUD/JPY at 400 pips while CAD/JPY and GBP/CHF reside as lows to 200 pip targets. Remainder pairs reside at 300 pips however exclusions exist.

GBP/AUD sits within a wide 1.7500 to 1.9400 range and at 1.8700’s is under no threat to break anytime soon. EUR/NZD and GBP/NZD while not fully factored yet stand at traditional wide ranges and also under no threat as well to break anytime soon.

The second currency market commonality is a vast majority of the 24 currency pairs trade below or just above 5-year averages.

USD/CAD at 1.2992 trades above while EUR/AUD and EUR/GBP trade above 5-, 10- and 15-year averages.

EUR/CHF threatens its 5-year average at 1.1108, EUR/USD at 1.1334,

GBP/JPY at 148.05, EUR/JPY 123.00, GBP/CAD 1.7037.

For most currency pairs, trade below 5-year averages also means trade below 5-, 10- and 15-year averages. What trade below averages 5 -15 means is continued compressed ranges and a price in dire need to rise in order to travel to higher ranges for increased volatility.

Currency pair exceptions exists to the 5 -15 normal trade ranges.

GBP/CAD as a wide range yet traditionally neutral currency pair and normally trades between its 5- and 15-year average to signify neutrality but the 10-year at 1.7037 crossed below the 5 year at 1.7714.

EUR/JPY 10 year at 123.49 crossed below the 5 year at 127.00.

GBP/JPY 10 year at 148.05 crossed below the 5 year at 154.00.

GBP/CAD now trades below 5-, 10- and 15-year averages while EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY trade below 5-, 10- and 15-year averages.

EUR/CAD Neutrality trades between its proper arrangement at 14 to 5-year averages from 1.4461 and 1.4713.

USD/CHF above the 5 year at 0.9804 will trade between its 5- and 15-year average at 1,0205. USD/JPY trades neutral from the 14-year average at 103.16 to 5 year at 112.55. GBP/AUD trades neutral from its 14 average at 1.8897 to 5 year at 1.8315.

14- Vs. 10-Year averages

If ever a breakout warning existed, its those Currency pairs trading between the 10- and 14-year averages and many fit this order.

GBP/NZD’s 14 year at 2.1884 Vs the 10 year at 1.9892. EUR/NZD 1.7623 at the 15 average Vs. the 10 year at 1.6637. NZD/CAD 14 year at 0.8283 Vs the 10 year at 0.8588.

10- Vs. 5-Year Averages

CHF/JPY trades between its 10 year at 104.88 and 5 year at 114.86.

AUD/NZD trades between its 5 year at 107.25 and 10 year at 1.1619.

EUR/GBP trades above its 5-, 10- and 16-year averages at 0.8383 while EUR/AUD also trades above its 5, 10 and 15 averages.

USD/CAD trades above all averages and nearest is 1.2992 to then trade between the 5 and 10 averages from 1.2992 to 1.1634. Remainder currency pairs trade below 5-, 10- and 15-year averages how neutral prices beckons.

Heading to Neutrality

EUR/USD on a break of 1.1334 would trade between its 5- and 10-year averages at 1.2369. EUR/CHF on a break of its 5 year average at 1.1107 then would trade from its 5- and 10-year average at 1.1868.

CAD/CHF on a break of its 5 year average at 0.7553 would trade from 0.7553 to 10 year at 0.8374.

Long-term Targets

Long-term targets doesn’t necessarily mean today but it offers direction and trade strategy as targets won't change for many months ahead.

USD/CAD 1.2886 or 300 pips however the 5 year at 1.2992 must break.

CAD/JPY 84.56 from 92.00’s and 300 pips.

GBP/CAD 1.6881 then 10 year at 1.7037.

GBP/CHF 1.2912 then 5 year at 1.3373.

EUR/USD 1.1477 but 5 year at 1.1334.

GBP/USD 1.3380 then 5 year at 1.3632

GBP/JPY 143.76 then 10 year at 148.05

EUR/JPY 123.61 caution 10 year at 123.58

EUR/AUD 1.5771 then 14 and 5 year at 1.5229 and 1.5212.

GBP/AUD No target, range currency pair

NZD/USD 0.6788 then 5 year at 0.6959

NZD/JPY 72.12 then 10 and 14 year at 74.57 and 74.59

NZD/CHF 0.6729 then 5 year at 0.6819

AUD/USD 0.7392 then 5 year at 0.7461

AUD/JPY 79.86 then 5 year at 84.01

AUD/CHF 0.7295 then 5 year at 0.7311.

Trade strategy overall constitutes either targets achieve fairly soon and a massive neutrality exists in currency markets or the magic number from 300 drops to a 600 pip target.

GBP/NZD and EUR/NZD targets updates today however both are extraordinarily wide range currency pairs and a formal target is never expected.

Best and easiest trade among all 18 Currency pairs is EUR/AUD as was the sell rally case for all EUR/AUD posts within the past 18 months.

Brian Twomey

Written By: Brian Twomey