15 Reasons Stocks May Rise Further
Michael Kramer | Feb 19, 2019 01:16AM ET
- S&P 500: Closed
- U.S. 10-Year: 2.66%
- Dollar Index: 96.76 -0.15%
- Oil: $56.03 +0.79%
- Shanghai: +2.68%
- Nikkei: +1.82%
- Hong Kong: +1.6%
- KOSPI:+0.67%
- Dax: +0.14%
- U.K. FTSE: Unchanged
Stocks are likely to rally when trading resumes in the U.S. on February 19.
The international markets I am about to highlight are critical and give us many clues to the direction of not only our markets but the global economy. These markets are all very much export-driven economies. If these markets are rallying, it is because investors see their economic fortunes improving.
h2 China – Shanghai/h2Equities in Asia had a big day on February 18 with the Shanghai Composite surging nearly 2.7%. The market has been red hot over the past few weeks and continues to surge towards 2,825, which would be a rise of about 3% from its current level of 2,754. Should their finally be a resolution to the trade-war, I can’t think of a stock market more likely to help.
The Nikkei in Japan continues to rally as well and has cleared resistance at 20,950, and it seems to be heading towards 21,981, which would be a gain of over 3%. Again this is another major export economy. In fact the third largest economy in the world, behind the U.S. which is number 1, and China which is number 2. Even the trend in the RSI has shifted from bearish to bullish, and that would suggest that there are more gains on the way.
Hong Kong is another market that continues to act well and shows signs of continuing to rise to around 28,980.
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Just look at the path of its largest stock Tencent Holdings Ltd (HK:0700), it continues to rise nicely along an uptrend on a road to 367.40 HKD.
Or its second largest company ICBC (HK:1398) which appears to be forming a cup and handle and pointing to an increase to 6.40 HKD. Even more look at the trend in the RSI, which has turned from a negative to positive since July, a bullish reversal.
The South Korean KOSPI is on the verge of a massive break out, which could send the index higher by as much as 7% to 2,350. No matter how you slice and dice the relative strength index, it has broken out suggest a significant shift in trend.
Look at Samsung Electronics (KS:005930) Co Ltd DRC Pref (LON:0593q) and its recent rise above resistance at 799 KRW, and the potential to rise towards 877 KRW.
What about SK Hynix Inc (KS:000660) with its big break out underway.
When you look at the performance of the international markets, it is tough to deny that these significant Asian markets are telling us something that U.S. investors just aren’t paying attention too, that their economies are likely on the mend. They all started peaking in early 2018, as the U.S. market just continued to move higher throughout the year, entirely missing the global slow down that was occurring. Now once again these markets are likely signaling a bottoming process.
Then, of course, there is this data fresh Dow Jones S&P today, which suggests that earnings growth bottoms in the first quarter and re-accelerates through the end of 2020.
(Dow Jones S&P)
They also estimate that growth in 2019 will be nearly 8% and will accelerate to around 13.5% in the year 2020. Although the growth rate for 2020 has slowed some in recent weeks, the expected growth in 2019 has stabilized about 8%.
(Dow Jones S&P)
h2 Global Growth Indicators/h2It is hard to be bearish when key global export stock markets and some of their largest stocks are telling us that the economic picture may be improving. It is also hard to ignore the fact that earnings growth here in the U.S. is bottoming and about to pick up steams. Additionally, critical global growth proxies such as copper are now again trying to break out, while the RSI is trying to do the same.
Or when a metal used so heavily in the Auto industry such as platinum is putting in a bottom around $770 –its 2008 lows.
Philadelphia Semiconductor Index are rallying hard off their lows, and the RSI is pointing to more gains in the future. What products in our lives doesn’t use a chip of one sort or another?
You want to bearish on this market? Be my guest, not me, that’s for sure.
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