15 Charts (And Trends) To Keep Your Eye On For 2015
Frank Holmes | Jan 08, 2015 01:40PM ET
In anticipation of the new year ahead, I’ve pulled together 15 charts that we’ll be watching and might help guide our expectations for what 2015 has in store for us.h3 A Not-So-Crude Trend/h3
Crude oil has recently dipped below $50 per barrel for the first time since 2009, one of the reasons for which is the rise of oil production in the United States. The glut has already prompted many U.S. companies to halt or limit projects, especially those that make use of hydraulic fracturing, or fracking. With oil prices as low as they are, it’s possible even more companies will join them.
1.
PMI: The Economic Soothsayer
Gross domestic product (GDP) tells you where you’ve been. Only the global manufacturing purchasing manager’s index (PMI) can tell you where you’re headed. Our research shows that when the one-month PMI reading crosses above the three-month moving average, gains have been made in select areas six months afterward:
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rate increases might affect Treasuries. But what about stocks? Historical precedent, going back to 1971, shows that stocks have on average increased by nearly 4 percent six months following a rate hike.
Disclosure and Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The J.P. Morgan Global Purchasing Manager’s Index is an indicator of the economic health of the global manufacturing sector. The PMI index is based on five major indicators: new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries and the employment environment.
The S&P 500 Stock Index is a widely recognized capitalization-weighted index of 500 common stock prices in U.S. companies.
The S&P 500 Materials Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the material sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Energy Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the energy sector as a subset of the S&P 500.
The NYSE Arca Airline Index is an equal dollar weighted index designed to measure the performance of highly capitalized companies in the airline industry. The XAL Index tracks the price performance of major U.S. and overseas airlines.
Shanghai Gold Exchange is a non-profit self-regulatory organization, approved by the State Council, organized by the People's Bank of China, and registered with the State Administration for Industry & Commerce, for the purpose of trading gold, silver, platinum and other precious metals.
BRIC refers to the emerging market countries Brazil, Russia, India and China.
Standard deviation is a measure of the dispersion of a set of data from its mean. The more spread apart the data, the higher the deviation. Standard deviation is also known as historical volatility.
Fund portfolios are actively managed, and holdings may change daily. Holdings are reported as of the most recent quarter-end. The following securities mentioned in the article were held by one or more of U.S. Global Investors Funds as of 9/30/2014: Apple, Facebook.
All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor.
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