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Week Ahead: China To Set Initial Risk Theme

Published 10/14/2012, 05:20 PM

Busy data week this week.

We left the markets on Friday with a bit of risk off, it will be interesting to see whether this theme hods early week or was merely some profit taking towards the end of the week.

Chinese CPI data could provide an initial catalyst for the first risk theme, good data could provide a spark to the aussie and overall risk sentiment, bad data pushing risk off.

Also expect Spain and Grexit rumours/commentary to be alive a kicking this week; news of Spain's request for a bailout will spark rallies, denial thereof risk off; a Grexit is also not good news.

EUR/USD
We highlighted last week that we were looking for signals to potentially sell around the 1.30 mark. The rejection of the pivot high on Friday wasn't the best signal and we would prefer a stronger intraday rejection of the 1.30 level. Potentially this pair may reverse now and test the previous support.


GBP/USD
The pound remained relatively flat this week staging a slight recovery. Little to do on this pair at the moment as it consolidates between the two EMAs; we will wait for a break to set direction.

AUD/USD
We like the aussie for another test of the support level that held up so well; if this breaks we could see a test of parity, it if holds again I would expect a much higher push to test recent highs around the 1.0650 mark.

USD/JPY
Our strategy on the USD/JPY remains as it has been recently. Looking for buy signals below 78.00 and taking profit around the upper channel resistance at 78.80; until this pair finally decides to do something we essentially play the range or stand aside.

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