A volatile week last week ended in pointers towards USD strength this week with Aussie, Euro and Pound all looking weaker.
UK was downgraded by Fitch from AAA to AA+ and we finally got an Italian President although how this will now work is yet to be seen, given how long the process has taken. It doesn't look yet like a cohesive government.
As we head into May, it's key to look for major levels to see whether we will see another weak May. (Sell in May and go away.)
Relatively quiet data week, this week; US data hasn't been the strongest lately so we could see some further lower revisions.
EUR/USD
Euro is looking decidedly Bearish following a double rejection of the 1.31000 level on Thursday and Friday. A break of the 1.3000 level could open the door to a much bigger move lower.
COT report also highlighting potential for a move lower from these levels with Commercial Index now above 70.
Personal Bias: Bearish
Support: 1.3050/ 1.3000
Resistance: 1.3100 / 1.3175
My Strategy: Break of 1.3000 to offer shorts or short from current levels targeting 1.2730. Potential for a more aggressive order using Thursday and Fridays rejections for a short entry.
GBP/USD
Bearish signal on the Pound from Fridays price action as the pair rejected the key highs around the 1.5365 level.
Personal Bias: Neutral to Bearish
Support: 1.5250 / 1.5220
Resistance: 1.5360 / 1.5420
My Strategy: Potential short option from Fridays price action, break of the 1.5200 level would confirm the Bearish signal
AUD/USD
Aussie continues to look weak as it has come off its range highs. We continue to like this pair for a move towards the 1.0200 level although it has taken a much shorter time falling from the 1.0600 level than getting there initially.
Personal Bias: Bearish
Support: 1.0245
Resistance: 1.0350
My Strategy:Failed test of the 1.0340 level could offer good short options, although with support not far below USD strength plays have better options elsewhere
USD/JPY
Pair managed to climb back to the 99.50 level flowing the test of the 96.00 level. Strong 4 hr price rejection gave a nice potential for a long USD/JPY play, we now suspect this pair will test the 100 mark, we continue to like buying strong price rejections off of support levels.
Personal Bias: Bullish
Support: 98.80
Resistance: 99.50
My Strategy: Look for long entries off of support
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