Last week was far from boring: the Euro broke out of range to push higher on poor US data. Following the moves on Thursday and Friday, we could see a continuation on Monday or some early profit taking.
The focus on U.S. data and Bernanke's comments will be key after last weeks poor NFP number. Continued poor U.S. performance or comments highlighting downside risks could avert a USD rally in the short term, extending last weeks drop.
We could see the pound, euro and possibly the yen as interesting players against the Dollar.
If Bernanke and good data can steady the ship, we expect to see more range bound price action.
EUR/USD
The pair dropped and flew higher today, putting in a rather aggressive and Bullish candle. Depending on Monday's NFP, we suspect the Euro could now push higher - but we still believe the upside is limited.
Personal Bias: Bullish
Support: 1.2870
Resistance: 1.23000
Strategy: Wait for clear signals - can look for potential long options off of strong price rejections from key support levels (200 Day SMA)
GBP/USD
The pound rejected lower prices significantly, highlighting strong support at the 1.5000 level. This pair has room to the upside and another interesting weekly looking price rejection of lower prices. Note strong levels at the close of last week and the 1.5520 mark.
Personal Bias: Bullish / Neutral
Support: 1.5275 / 1.5185
Resistance: 1.5365 / 1.5520
Strategy: Standaside
AUD/USD
Aussie pushed lower from our signal on Wednesday. The weekly chart also looks bearish, off of a weekly trendline resistance.
Personal Bias: Bearish
Support: 1.0370 (200 Day SMA)
Resistance: 1.0475
Strategy: Lock in profits on short entry from Wednesday, can look for a short play off of weekly trendline resistance targeting 1.020
USD/JPY
We highlighted the potential for longs below 94.00 and included a 93.40 long, which bagged over 300 pips on Thursday and Friday. Aggressive actions by BoJ sent this pair rocketing. It is now key to see it break the weekly resistance at 96.50 before moving higher.
Personal Bias: Bullish
Support: 96.70 / 94.20
Resistance: ???
Strategy: Lock in profit on long entries, can look to add to position on retests off of support
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