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Tuesday's FX Analysis: 3 Days Of Chop, 2 Days Of Breakout

Published 04/09/2013, 04:32 PM

Another quiet day for the markets meant pairs could continue to grind higher against the U.S. dollar.

Bernanke's overnight comments didn't manage to quell any of the current nervousness around poor U.S. and Chinese data.

Good data from the U.K. this morning provided a small boost to the GBP, but markets have been extremely light on real volume.

There seems to be a pattern lately: 3 days of chop and 2 days of breakout trading. Thursday and Friday could easily be this week's breakout days.

Wednesday could be another quiet day: FOMC minutes are the only key data due for release, and not before 7pm GMT.

Tomorrow's minutes are from the end of March meeting, when NFP numbers were far better. Comments may reflect a more positive U.S. outlook compared to recent data. Today's comments from the Fed's Bullard suggest that recent poor U.S. data is not of great concern yet.

EUR/USD
The euro ground higher today, and still remains within a good range for further upside momentum. We prefer longer term Bearish moves and short term Bullish moves, but will now start to look for short options below the 1.3200 level.
Personal Bias: Short term Bullish / Longer Term Bearish
Support: 1.2900
Resistance: 1.3050
Strategy: Wait for clear signals
$EURUSD (Daily)  17_12_2012 - 09_04_2013$EURUSD (Weekly)  Week 17_2011 - Week 15_2013

GBP/USD
The pound continued to chop sideways; we still remain short term Bullish, but will start to look for short options towards the 1.5400 level.
Personal Bias: Neutral
Support: 1.5275 / 1.5185
Resistance: 1.5365 / 1.5520
Strategy: Standaside, wait for clear signals.
$GBPUSD (Daily)  17_12_2012 - 09_04_2013$GBPUSD (Weekly)  Week 35_2011 - Week 15_2013

AUD/USD
The aussie pushed higher, against the weekly trendline. We prefer shorts from this level playing the weekly range in the aussie.
Personal Bias: Bearish
Support: 1.0370 (200 Day SMA)
Resistance: 1.0475
Strategy: Look to play short entries off of the weekly trendline and range, stops above 1.0600 level.
$AUDUSD (Daily)  04_12_2012 - 09_04_2013$AUDUSD (Weekly)  Week 23_2011 - Week 15_2013

USD/JPY
The pair chopped around today, not quite reaching the 100 mark overnight and pulling back back to the 99 level.
We remain Bullish with this pair, but could see a further pull back to offer more value for long entries.
Personal Bias: Bullish
Support: 98.70 / 96.45
Resistance: ???
Strategy: Lock in profit on long entries, can look to add to position on retests off of support.
$USDJPY (Daily)  20_12_2012 - 09_04_2013$USDJPY (Weekly)  Week 33_2011 - Week 15_2013

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