FX Market Tiresome But I Think We’re Closer To A Reversal

Every now and then the market goes berserk – normally a reaction to the squaring out of a larger market position. They look like they’re going to shoot out of the top but rarely happen – and it shouldn’t. This recent move from last week has been a one-way street but while resembling the Trump Spike this has been slower. I hate these situations due to the lower degree development making life extremely difficult.

For example, this morning when I woke up and saw the 1.1157 high I thought “perhaps this could be the high” but I also looked at an alternative that saw an overlap that could extend the rally in EUR/USD towards the 76.4% projection in the rally from 1.0569 at 1.1185. The 85.4% is at 1.1225… but as far as I can see it’s beginning to creak at the edges.

I’ve also had to work through USD/JPY – this now pointing to the likelihood of the 114.37 high being the (green) Wave (i). We have seen a double zigzag. I hope we won’t get a triple three. At least, it seems that EUR/JPY has completed a 3-wave decline and thus it tends to suggest that USD/JPY will recover. It’s just a matter of how fast EUR/USD will reverse – when it happens.

There is also a good argument for USD/CHF to have found a low at 0.9774 – or perhaps a minor new low. That would confirm a triple three from the 1.0343 high. This forms the daily (navy) Wave -b-/-iii- and that points to the upside.

The pair that concerns is GBP/USD. I had thought we’d found the high at 1.2988 but yesterday saw a new high at 1.2990. It’s a very difficult outcome here. It could have found a high – but there’s a risk of an “overlap” that could take it higher towards 1.3080-1.3120… Thus, take care.

As for the Aussie – well, it’s still drifting around in a daze and has some personal issues. This pair is just too risky. I’d still suggest being neutral.