The Non Farm Payrolls certainly provided impact. I had been working with two alternatives over the past week, waiting for a sign of a break in one of the alternatives. Having said that, I do have some reservations due to some indications in GBP/USD and EUR/JPY. Once these have been resolved, we should hopefully have a stronger, unified outlook.
As this week begins, I’m not convinced that Friday’s strength in the dollar will continue directly. This seems to be implied in the three Europeans at least, and probably AUD/USD. As these develop, there should hopefully be a greater idea of the resolutions required in GBP/USD, EUR/JPY and AUD/USD. Therefore, I feel the initial reaction today will be for the dollar to move lower, and we’ll then have to observe the relative development across the pairs.
As pointed out on Friday, EUR/JPY has still failed to reach the support area I indicated, and this can still provide a downside barrier. It implies a rally to a new high, but beyond that point, some greater care is going to be required. This begs the question of which – or both – of EUR/USD and USD/JPY will provide the boost higher. I feel today will provide that information. The cross is probably a decent trade today.
So, while the need for some due care and attention is required to confirm my suspicions, I have a feeling that this will generally be a less directional day.