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More Of The Same: Dollar To Continue To Lose

Published 08/16/2013, 02:12 AM
Well, when I say “a bit more of the same” we can forget the whip higher in the Dollar and just concentrate on the downside. That unfortunate whip lower in EUR/USD and higher in USD/CHF was a bit of a pain. I had allowed for that blip in USD/CHF but was not ready for the Euro to do the same. However, now done, and with GBP/USD extending gains we now have ourselves a quorum. Thus, more of the same. The first half of the day should be dominated by the normal consolidation seen in Asia but expect the Dollar to lose out further by the end of the day though, it seems inevitable following the sudden rush of blood to the head, the pattern recently has been for the follow-through to be less frenetic.

AUD/USD looked positive at first but then suffered the same as the Europeans. It places it in a rather ambiguous situation in terms of the more medium term outlook, and actually even the shorter term also. The structure it has taken offers many alternatives – clearly the basic two being bullish and bearish – but the additional possible implications do also suggest the potential for complex consolidation. This is therefore one to take in short steps and to understand the implications of certain levels. Softly, softly catch a koala.


Finally the JPY pairs - USD/JPY developed almost pinpoint perfectly stalling 3 points above my support and ending within the target range. This is encouraging and should therefore continue losses. Having said that it should suffer the same as the Europeans in terms of a correction in the first half of the day but should then follow-through later. Unfortunately
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EUR/JPY suffered from the push higher in USDJPY on a still firm EUR/USD and moved to a minor new high. Certainly a pain but has done no lasting damage and I remain bearish here though the downside may remain a bit sluggish while EUR/USD moves higher and USD/JPY lower. It should later accelerate.

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