Today we were primarily focused on news and data.
First up was the UK data, better Unemployment figures gave a boost to the Pound until the IMF stepped up later in the day and lowered its growth forecasts for the UK (note IMF also lowered growth forecasts for the eurozone as well).
We also saw the BoE minutes at the same time, with an 8-1 vote to keep QE the same and 9-0 vote on interest rates, so no real big surprises then.
Not long after this we also had Cameron's EU speech. It was a pretty balanced speech compared to what was being touted, but I do question why the EU would accept a revised treaty anyway, why not tell the UK to stick it, in which case growth prospects for the UK don't exactly look great, especially given the majority of the exports are to Europe and within the service sectors; think there is a fine line to tread here.
This afternoon we had the Bank of Canada rate decision. Although rate was kept the same BoC Governor Carney (soon to be head of the BoE) highlighted that rate rises weren't imminent and the CAD quickly declined.
Interesting to review the QE situation with the Fed, BoE, ECB and BoJ all putting stimulus on hold, are we really likely to see a year with no QE?
Eurozone PMI tomorrow which could be interesting, good data out of the eurozone recently but the IMF obviously has a downer on everything at the moment, given chop today PMI could set the tone for the euro in the short-term.
Also on the calendar is the US initial jobless claims.
EUR/USD
The euro bounced around today again today, market is really choppy at the moment and I am staying away having closed a small long on today's spike higher.
I still maintain my bias but I am now waiting for a clear signal and entry before jumping back onto this pair again.
Personal Bias: Bullish above 1.3250
Support: 1.3300 then 1.3250
Resistance: 1.3400
My Strategy: Standaside - break and hold below 1.3250 could offer short options; break above 1.33 could offer long options.
GBP/USD
The pound again tried to push higher before it was knocked back down again by the IMF. I maintain my Bearish bias.
Personal Bias: Bearish
Support: 1.5820
Resistance: 1.5900/10 (200-day SMA), 1.6000
My Strategy: A break of the 1.5820 and close below could offer further shorting options. For a bounce higher watch the 1.59 and 200-day SMA as initial resistance followed by the 1.6000 handle, both could offer additional shorting options.
AUD/USD
The aussie moved lower but seemed to reject lower prices putting in a with trend pin bar. Not massively keen on this signal with resistance so far ahead but I do maintain my technically Bullish outlook on this pair for the moment.
Personal Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Support: 1.0520/1.0490
Resistance: 1.0600/ 1.06020
My Strategy: Stand aside - I will look to take a very small position on this pin bar set-up, which could be added to if we do break higher, however a clear break offers a better opportunity.
USD/JPY
The yen found some strength but really struggled to push past support today. I suspect we could see a move higher here to test the 90.00 mark again but for now I maintain my Bearish outlook
Personal Bias: Bearish
Support: 88.50
Resistance: 90.20
My Strategy: Look for shorts on a push and hold below 88.50. Initial Target 87.00, second target 85.55, alternative break above 90.00 negates my current bias.
First up was the UK data, better Unemployment figures gave a boost to the Pound until the IMF stepped up later in the day and lowered its growth forecasts for the UK (note IMF also lowered growth forecasts for the eurozone as well).
We also saw the BoE minutes at the same time, with an 8-1 vote to keep QE the same and 9-0 vote on interest rates, so no real big surprises then.
Not long after this we also had Cameron's EU speech. It was a pretty balanced speech compared to what was being touted, but I do question why the EU would accept a revised treaty anyway, why not tell the UK to stick it, in which case growth prospects for the UK don't exactly look great, especially given the majority of the exports are to Europe and within the service sectors; think there is a fine line to tread here.
This afternoon we had the Bank of Canada rate decision. Although rate was kept the same BoC Governor Carney (soon to be head of the BoE) highlighted that rate rises weren't imminent and the CAD quickly declined.
Interesting to review the QE situation with the Fed, BoE, ECB and BoJ all putting stimulus on hold, are we really likely to see a year with no QE?
Eurozone PMI tomorrow which could be interesting, good data out of the eurozone recently but the IMF obviously has a downer on everything at the moment, given chop today PMI could set the tone for the euro in the short-term.
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Also on the calendar is the US initial jobless claims.
EUR/USD
The euro bounced around today again today, market is really choppy at the moment and I am staying away having closed a small long on today's spike higher.
I still maintain my bias but I am now waiting for a clear signal and entry before jumping back onto this pair again.
Personal Bias: Bullish above 1.3250
Support: 1.3300 then 1.3250
Resistance: 1.3400
My Strategy: Standaside - break and hold below 1.3250 could offer short options; break above 1.33 could offer long options.
GBP/USD
The pound again tried to push higher before it was knocked back down again by the IMF. I maintain my Bearish bias.
Personal Bias: Bearish
Support: 1.5820
Resistance: 1.5900/10 (200-day SMA), 1.6000
My Strategy: A break of the 1.5820 and close below could offer further shorting options. For a bounce higher watch the 1.59 and 200-day SMA as initial resistance followed by the 1.6000 handle, both could offer additional shorting options.
AUD/USD
The aussie moved lower but seemed to reject lower prices putting in a with trend pin bar. Not massively keen on this signal with resistance so far ahead but I do maintain my technically Bullish outlook on this pair for the moment.
3rd party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Investing.com. See disclosure here or remove ads.
Personal Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Support: 1.0520/1.0490
Resistance: 1.0600/ 1.06020
My Strategy: Stand aside - I will look to take a very small position on this pin bar set-up, which could be added to if we do break higher, however a clear break offers a better opportunity.
USD/JPY
The yen found some strength but really struggled to push past support today. I suspect we could see a move higher here to test the 90.00 mark again but for now I maintain my Bearish outlook
Personal Bias: Bearish
Support: 88.50
Resistance: 90.20
My Strategy: Look for shorts on a push and hold below 88.50. Initial Target 87.00, second target 85.55, alternative break above 90.00 negates my current bias.
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