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Google Or EU? Which Is More Important?

Published 10/18/2012, 05:25 PM

Started the day with the Chinese data which came in better than expected, this was followed by strong UK Retail Sales and a strong Spanish auction. Finally towards the end of the day we had slightly worse Initial Jobless claims in the US.

Yet we didn't see any risk on today. Towards the end of the day we saw Google results miss estimates and profits slump; this came as a bit of a shock to the markets especially as some accidentally let it slip a little too early; this potentially could spark a bit more risk off trading; there is strong support below though. We highlighted two days ago that we may have moved a little too soon in the markets and today it certainly seemed like everyone else felt the same way.

Quieter data day tomorrow, let's see where we go next and the headlines out of the European Council, which is likely to be more important than Google missing estimates and shocking the markets or the European Council yet again announcing nothing new?

We suspect the real shock of the week happened today, at least this one was actually confirmed (don't worry we didn't actually intend to debate which was more worthy Google or the EU).

EUR/USD
The euro pulled back to the previous pivot high today. Similar to the pound we had clues on the lower timeframes that we would see a slight move back.

GBP/USD
The pound nose dived today, we did get some tell signs on the 1hr and 4hr charts which highlighted that we might have over extended. We note this as something to watch out for.

AUD/USD
Pulled back slightly towards the 200 day moving average. From the initial breakout play we have now closed the position due to the small pin formed. This is a rather small signal but it is off a previous support/resistance level and therefore may pay off.

USD/JPY
We highlighted yesterday that we would like to see this pair test the 200 day moving average and it dully delivered. We would expect a bit of a pull back now but if it can hold above its previous range it could be starting to carve out its way higher from here.

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