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Daily FX: Volumes Allow for Consolidation as Aussie Follows Gold

Published 03/12/2013, 10:43 PM

Low volumes provide support on a relatively quiet day.
Large orders in Gold seemed to prop up the Aussie on a quiet day, but the Euro remained well supported although it was unable to break through the key key 1.31000 level.
German and Italian CPI failed to amuse, the UK industrial production was relatively below expectations.
On quiet days, the order book continues to dominate and is often a good proxy for the upcoming market moves.

EUR/USD
The Euro failed really to push higher or lower today, with the pair remaining well capped by the 1.3075 level but failing to move lower from there.
We retain our Bearish outlook, but given the relative support the pair has shown, highlight that we could easily see a push higher before a move lower.
RTAS system remains distinctly Bearish.
Personal Bias: Bearish
Support: 1.3000
Resistance: 1.3100
Strategy: Look for short opportunities on any failed tests of resistance.
$EURUSD (Daily)  12_11_2012 - 13_03_2013$EURUSD (Weekly)  Week 52_2010 - Week 11_2013

GBP/USD
The air continued to find support today, offering the potential for a push higher before a move lower. We prefer to wait for short opportunities and remain sidelined until a clear rejection of higher prices.
Personal Bias: Bearish
Support: 1.4865 / 1.4800 (monthly support)
Resistance: 1.5000 / 1.5190
Strategy: Look for sell signals on any retracements higher
$GBPUSD (Daily)  03_12_2012 - 13_03_2013$GBPUSD (Weekly)  Week 46_2010 - Week 11_2013

AUD/USD
The aussie crept into higher territory following a strong order in Gold (remember the Aussie is 8-% correlated with Gold), however the pair then failed to push higher from its break, consolidating at the 1.0320 mark.
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The pair offers good value for shorts from this level, so we will look for clear rejection signals of upper price limits to support a short position.
Personal Bias: Bearish
Support: 1.0200
Resistance: 1.03650
Strategy: Looking for short options on a higher price rejection
$AUDUSD (Daily)  30_10_2012 - 13_03_2013$AUDUSD (Weekly)  Week 5_2011 - Week 11_2013

USD/JPY
The pair consolidated today with little movement on no news. However, our in house system has started to position itself ready for short options again, given the Retail Order book has now moved to Long. We remain sidelined awaiting clear signals.
Personal Bias: Neutral
Support: 94.50
Resistance: 100 ... maybe
Strategy: sidelined - wait for clear entry signals.
$USDJPY (Daily)  30_10_2012 - 13_03_2013
$USDJPY (Weekly)  Week 46_2010 - Week 11_2013

EUR/GBP
Interesting setup in the Euro Pound as it tested highs today. We could easily see a move lower from these levels, and our Pin Bar Scanner has offer a good risk reward ratio.
$EURGBP (Daily)  08_11_2012 - 13_03_2013

USD/CAD
The pair could offer potential short options if we get a retracement. Close of Friday was Bullish, so it's key to wait for clear signals. Long term we remain USD/CAD Bulls for the time being, but suspect it is due a retracement as the order book is at extreme levels.
Safe play is to wait for the retracement to enter this pair long again. Those a little more risk tolerant could look for a counter trend trade short towards the 1.200, 1.170 mark; key to counter trend trade is to get a clear short signal.
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$USDCAD (Daily)  23_11_2012 - 13_03_2013$USDCAD (Weekly)  Week 14_2011 - Week 11_2013

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