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Daily FX Analysis: Italian Boost before Draghi Dampener

Published 03/05/2013, 07:05 PM

News last week of a Think Tank report from the US on a Bersani and Grillo pact surfaced again today - with extra details. The report essentially suggests that conversations tomorrow in Italy will be focused on forming a coalition and nothing else.

We wonder whether this could be the Euro boost on Wednesday before Draghi puts a dampener on things again on Thursday.


EUR/USD
The euro continued in its consolidation state today. The pair seems as if it is gearing up for Dragh'si press conference on Thursday and the NFP release on Friday.
We still like this pair for a move lower, so we willlook to sell any price rejections towards the 1.3200 handle.
Personal Bias: Bearish (just)
Support: 1.3000
Resistance: 1.3150
Strategy: Still holding short a runner (locked in profit) having booked over 200 pips on our initial short, looking for a break of the 1.30 handle to confirm further downside, or a strong rejection to point towards a move higher.
$EURUSD (Daily)  31_10_2012 - 06_03_2013$EURUSD (Weekly)  Week 51_2010 - Week 10_2013

GBP/USD
The pound struggled to push higher despite a quiet consolidation day. We continue to like shorts, but would prefer to see a bit of a push higher towards the 1.54 mark. That said a break of the 1.50 handle could open the door to a much lower move.
Personal Bias: Bearish
Support: 1.5000 / 1.4800 (monthly support)
Resistance: 1.5190 / 1.5370
Strategy: Look for sell signals on any retracements higher
$GBPUSD (Daily)  13_11_2012 - 06_03_2013$GBPUSD (Weekly)  Week 4_2011 - Week 10_2013

AUD/USD
The Aussie pushed higher today. Our medium and short term bias on the RTAS pointed towards long positions. The pair is now entering relatively strong resistance, if it can breach this would could see a move to rest recent highs. However, we suspect we could be looking lower from here and prefer a false break and a move lower.
Confirmation of a false break would pus us short.
Personal Bias: Bearish
Support: 1.0200
Resistance: 1.0285
Strategy: Stand aside - false break of resistance could offer good short options.

$AUDUSD (Daily)  16_11_2012 - 06_03_2013$AUDUSD (Weekly)  Week 1_2011 - Week 10_2013

USD/JPY
The pair mainly consolidated today, not willing to really rest resistance or support. Yen crosses seem to be pointing towards short entry options but it will be key to wait for clear signals given the relative strength in the pairs.
Personal Bias: Neutral
Support: 91.00 / 88.00
Resistance: 93.00
Strategy: sidelined - wait for clear entry signals.

$USDJPY (Daily)  26_10_2012 - 06_03_2013$USDJPY (Weekly)  Week 3_2011 - Week 10_2013

NZD/USD
We still like this for a move lower, and would use a push higher and price rejections as an opportunity to get short the pair again. We would need to see a higher price rejection for confirmation though. In this case we would be looking for short options towards the 0.8300 mark. If we break immediate support then we can use the 4hr chart to look for short options.
$NZDUSD (240 Min)  06_03_2013$NZDUSD (Daily)  21_11_2012 - 06_03_2013

USD/CHF
Continue to hold a long runner position with profits locked in (and 2/3rds of the long position closed). We have immediate weekly resistance above but if we can break through this, we could be on the way towards parity. We look for corrections and price rejections off of support to offer long options.
$USDCHF (Daily)  30_10_2012 - 06_03_2013
USD/CAD
The pair looks about ready for a bit of a relief correction to allow for more buyers, with extremes in the order book we expect to see prices move lower here, but we like using these moves lower to offer better value long options. Keep an eye on this pair this week.
$USDCAD (Daily)  16_11_2012 - 06_03_2013

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