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Currency Speculators Boost USD Bullish Positions For 6th Straight Week

Published 11/06/2016, 11:34 PM

US Dollar: COT Large Speculators Sentiment vs UUP ETF Chart

US Dollar net speculator positions leveled at $20.78 billion last week

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators raised their bullish bets for the US dollar for a sixth consecutive week last week.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling $20.78 billion as of Tuesday November 1st, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly change of $1.97 billion from the $18.81 billion total long position that was registered the previous week, according to the Reuters calculation (totals of the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc).

The US dollar speculative bullish position is now over the $20 billion level for the first time since January 26th when the net position equaled $23.85 billion.

Weekly Speculator Contract Changes:

The major currencies that improved against the US dollar last week were just the Australian dollar (8,944 contracts) and the British pound sterling (1,001 contracts).

The currencies whose speculative bets fell last week versus the dollar were the euro (-13,529 weekly change in contracts), Mexican peso (-11,129 contracts), Canadian dollar (-2,636 contracts), Japanese yen (-1,435 contracts), Swiss franc (-1,270 contracts) and the New Zealand dollar (-545 contracts).

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Table of Weekly Commercial Traders and Speculators Levels & Changes:

Table of Weekly Commercial Traders

This latest COT data is through Tuesday and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

EuroFX:

EuroFX Futures: COT Large Speculators Sentiment vs EUR/USD Chart

British Pound Sterling:

British Pound: COT Large Speculators Sentiment vs GBP/USD Chart

Japanese Yen:

Japanese Yen: COT Large Speculators Sentiment vs FXY ETF Chart

Swiss Franc:

Swiss Franc: COT Large Speculators Sentiment vs FXF ETF Chart

Canadian Dollar:

Canadian Dollar: COT Large Speculators Sentiment vs FXC ETF Chart

Australian Dollar:

Australian Dollar: COT Large Speculators Sentiment vs AUD/USD Chart

New Zealand Dollar:

NZD: COT Large Speculators Sentiment vs NZD/USD Chart

Mexican Peso:

Mexican Peso: COT Large Speculators Sentiment vs MXN/USD Chart

*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

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Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The charts overlay the forex closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

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