For the best part of the last month the Australian dollar has established and traded within a narrow range roughly between 0.88 and the recent resistance level at 0.90. However for the most part over the last week the Australian dollar has fallen sharply back down to the support level at 0.88 and pushed through moving to a multi-year low near 0.8750 before rallying back towards 0.88. A day ago it surged higher to a one week high near 0.8890 before spending the last half day returning back again to the key 0.88 level where it is presently trading. A week ago the Australian dollar was able to rally higher pushing through the resistance at 0.90 to a one month high near 0.91, however it has since returned to more familiar territory below the resistance level at 0.90. After showing some resilience in early December moving to a one week high above 0.9150, the AUD/USD spent the next two weeks turning around sharply and falling heavily down to a then three month low close to 0.88. After all of its steady good work in the middle of November which saw the AUD/USD steadily move higher from support at 0.93 back up to a one week high near 0.9450, the AUD/USD has since returned all of those gains and then some more.
Throughout most of October the AUD/USD enjoyed a solid and steady move higher from the support level at 0.93 up to the resistance level at 0.95 and beyond to a high around 0.9760. It has been all down hill since then. Throughout the first half of September the AUD/USD enjoyed a solid run which was punctuated by a strong surge higher sending it to a then three month high just above 0.95. A couple of months ago the AUD/USD had been trying valiantly to stay above the support level at 0.89 as all week it placed downward pressure but was unable to sustain any break lower. At the beginning of August it moved very well from three year lows to move back above the key level of 90 cents and beyond to a two week high just above 0.92 to finish out that week.
At the end of July the AUD/USD fell very strongly and appeared to resume the medium term down trend as it moved to a new three year low near 0.8850 but it reversed very well and looked poised to continue back towards the longer term resistance level at 0.93. For the most part of the last week, it moved very little and was quite subdued staying above the support level at 0.94.
Price pressures were less subdued than economists had expected in the final three months of 2013, but they are unlikely to have an impact on interest rates just yet. The consumer price index for the December quarter rose 0.8 per cent after a 1.2 per cent jump in the September quarter, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday. However, this was stronger than the 0.5 per cent increase expected by economists. The annual inflation rate was 2.7 per cent compared with 2.2 per cent previously, but remains within the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) two to three per cent target band. Among the most significant price rises in the quarter were for domestic holiday travel and accommodation which rose 6.9 per cent.
AUD/USD Daily Chart" title="AUD/USD Daily Chart" height="236" width="474"> 
AUD/USD Hourly Chart" title="AUD/USD Hourly Chart" height="241" width="474">
AUD/USD January 23 at 02:05 GMT 0.8796 H: 0.8888 L: 0.8791
AUD/USD Technical
| S3 | S2 | S1 | R1 | R2 | R3 |
| 0.8800 | 0.8750 | --- | 0.9080 | 0.9180 | 0.9500 |
During the early hours of the Asian trading session on Thursday, the AUD/USD is continuing to drop below the 0.88 level after falling sharply over the last 1/2 day or so. The Australian dollar was in a free-fall for a lot of last year falling close to 20 cents. Current range: trading below 0.8800 around 0.8795.
Further levels in both directions:
• Below: 0.8800 and 0.8750.
• Above: 0.9080, 0.9180 and 0.9500.
OANDA’s Open Position Ratios
AUD/USD Position Ratios" title="AUD/USD Position Ratios" height="28" width="474">
(Shows the ratio of long vs. short positions held for the AUD/USD among all OANDA clients. The left percentage (blue) shows long positions; the right percentage (orange) shows short positions.)
The long position ratio for the AUD/USD has moved back below 70% as the Australian dollar as retraced back towards 0.88 again. The trader sentiment remains strongly in favour of long positions.
Economic Releases
- 08:58 EU Flash Composite PMI (Jan)
- 08:58 EU Flash Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
- 08:58 EU Flash Services PMI (Jan)
- 09:00 EU Current Account (Nov)
- 11:00 UK CBI Distributive Trades (Jan)
- 13:30 CA Retail Sales (Nov)
- 13:30 US Initial Claims (18/01/2013)
- 13:58 US Flash Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
- 14:00 US FHFA House Price Index (Nov)
- 15:00 US Existing home sales (Dec)
- JP Publication of Monthly Report