AUD/USD for Wednesday, February 12, 2014
In the last couple of days the Australian dollar has been able to push up to the resistance level at 0.90 and is now threatening to maintain a break to the high side, despite it being in the midst of forming a reversal pin bar. Earlier last week the Australian dollar enjoyed a strong move higher moving through the previous resistance level at 0.88 and reaching a three week high around 0.8980. To finish out last week it continued higher but ran into a brick wall at the resistance level of 0.90 before easing a little lower. For a couple of weeks the Australian dollar continued to make runs at the resistance level of 0.88 only to be rejected again and again and forced lower. During this time the Australian dollar seemed content to remain steady and consolidate just below the key 0.88 level, after its strong fall through most of January. For the last couple of months the Australian dollar has established and traded within a narrow range roughly between 0.88 and the previous resistance level at 0.90. A few weeks ago however the Australian dollar fell sharply back down to the support level at 0.88 and pushed through moving to a multi-year low at 0.8660.
The Australian dollar is doing well to cling on to the 0.88 level. A few weeks ago it surged higher to a one week high near 0.8890 before returning back again to the key 0.88 level and below. A few weeks ago the Australian dollar was able to rally higher pushing through the resistance at 0.90 to a one month high near 0.91, however it has since returned to more familiar territory below the resistance levels at 0.90 and 0.88. After showing some resilience in early December moving to a one week high above 0.9150, the AUD/USD spent the next two weeks turning around sharply and falling heavily down to a then three month low close to 0.88.
After all of its steady good work in the middle of November which saw the AUD/USD steadily move higher from support at 0.93 back up to a one week high near 0.9450, the AUD/USD has since returned all of those gains and then some more. Throughout most of October the AUD/USD enjoyed a solid and steady move higher from the support level at 0.93 up to the resistance level at 0.95 and beyond to a high around 0.9760. It has been all down hill since then. Throughout the first half of September the AUD/USD enjoyed a solid run which was punctuated by a strong surge higher sending it to a then three month high just above 0.95. A couple of months ago the AUD/USD had been trying valiantly to stay above the support level at 0.89 as all week it placed downward pressure but was unable to sustain any break lower.
The Australian dollar received a leg up on Tuesday after an upbeat local business survey helped the currency break a key chart barrier, and investors were awaiting testimony by the new chief of the U.S. Federal Reserve. The Aussie leapt to its highest in a month at $0.9016, from $0.8942 in early trade, and was last at $0.9007. A sustained break above major chart resistance at 90 cents would target the 2014 peak of $0.9087. It found support after a measure of Australian business conditions rose to its highest in nearly three years in January. The private survey also showed firms felt more confident about the outlook for orders and employment.
AUD/USD Daily chart " title="AUD/USD Daily chart " height="238" width="474"> 
AUD/USD 4 hourly chart " title="AUD/USD 4 hourly chart " height="242" width="474">
AUD/USD February 12 at 01:20 GMT 0.9020 H: 0.9047 L: 0.8993
AUD/USD Technical
| S3 | S2 | S1 | R1 | R2 | R3 |
| 0.8650 | --- | --- | 0.9050 | 0.9080 | 0.9180 |
During the early hours of the Asian trading session on Wednesday, the AUD/USD is easing back a little towards the key level of 0.90 after breaking through this level over the last day or so. The Australian dollar was in a free-fall for a lot of last year falling close to 20 cents. Current range: trading right above 0.9000 around 0.9020.
Further levels in both directions:
• Below: 0.8650.
• Above: 0.9050, 0.9080 and 0.9180.
OANDA’s Open Position Ratios
AUD/USD Open Position Ratios" title="AUD/USD Open Position Ratios" height="27" width="474">
(Shows the ratio of long vs. short positions held for the AUD/USD among all OANDA clients. The left percentage (blue) shows long positions; the right percentage (orange) shows short positions.)
The long position ratio for the AUD/USD has dropped sharply back below 60% as the Australian dollar has surged higher to a three week high above 0.90. The trader sentiment remains in favour of long positions.
Economic Releases
- 10:00 EU Industrial production (Dec)
- 10:30 UK BoE Inflation Report Published
- 19:00 US Budget (Jan)
- UK Inflation Report Published
- US MSCI Quarterly Index Review
- WLD OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report
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