AUD/USD for Monday, December 1, 2014
The Australian dollar hasn’t had a great last couple of weeks as it has dropped sharply and fallen to a new multi-year low to start this week below 0.8450. During the middle of last week it enjoyed some solid support from 0.85, however this has given way to overwhelming supply. To start last week it rallied back above 0.8650 again before falling lower throughout the rest of the week. In the week prior the Australian dollar was able to rally higher and bounce off multi year lows around 0.8550 and in doing so has moved back within the previously well established trading range between 0.8650 and 0.88. The resistance level at 0.88 has stood tall on numerous occasions over the last few months. During the last couple of months the Australian dollar has done well to stop the bleeding and trade within this range after experiencing a sharp decline throughout September which saw it move from close to 0.94 down to below 0.8650 and a then eight month low in the process.
Back at the beginning of September the Australian dollar showed some positive signs as it surged higher again bouncing off support below 0.93 and reaching a new four week high around 0.94 however that all now seems a distant memory. The Australian dollar reached a three week high just shy of 0.9480 at the end of July after it enjoyed a solid period which saw it surge higher through the resistance level at 0.9425 to the three week around 0.9480, before easing back towards that level. The Australian dollar enjoyed a solid surge higher reaching a new eight month high above 0.95 at the end of June, only to return most of its gains in very quick time to finish out that week. Since the middle of June the Australian dollar has made repeated attempts to break through the resistance level around 0.9425, however despite its best efforts it was rejected every time as the key level continued to stand tall, even though it has allowed the small excursion to above 0.95.
After the Australian dollar had enjoyed a solid surge in the first couple of weeks of June which returned it to the resistance level around 0.9425, it then fell sharply away from this level back to a one week low around 0.9330 before rallying higher yet again. Its recent surge higher to the resistance level around 0.9425 was after spending a couple of weeks at the end of May trading near and finding support at 0.9220. Throughout April and into May the Australian dollar drifted lower from resistance just below 0.95 after reaching a six month high in that area and down to the recent key level at 0.93 before falling lower. During this similar period the 0.93 level has become very significant as it has provided stiff resistance for some time. The Australian dollar appeared to be well settled around 0.93 which has illustrated the strong resurgence it has experienced throughout this year.
Australia is on track to build a record number of new homes this year, with that strength expected to continue into 2015. New home sales rose three per cent in October, following a flat result in September, figures released by the Housing Industry Association show. HIA chief economist Harley Dale said while monthly sales are off the peak reached in April, they are still high. “That augurs well for healthy new home construction activity persisting into 2015,” he said on Thursday. Dr Dale said other indicators point towards further housing market strength in the new year. “Australian Bureau of Statistics building approvals are past their peaks but remain at elevated levels,” he said. “Lending for new housing is still trending higher and doesn’t appear to have peaked yet.” The figures come after the Australian Bureau of Statistics found that total construction work across the country slipped to its worst level since the post Sydney Olympics slump during the September quarter. The amount of construction completed fell 2.2 per cent in the three-month period, with residential work down 1.6 per and engineering projects 3.2 per cent lower.
AUD/USD December 1 at 01:05 GMT 0.8441 H: 0.8506 L: 0.8427
AUD/USD Technical
| S3 | S2 | S1 | R1 | R2 | R3 |
| 0.8400 | — | — | 0.8650 | 0.8800 | 0.9000 |
During the early hours of the Asian trading session on Monday, the AUD/USD is trying to consolidate and stop the bleeding after starting the week falling sharply down to new multi-year lows below 0.8430. Current range: trading right around 0.8440.
Further levels in both directions:
• Below: 0.8400.
• Above: 0.8650, 0.8800, and 0.9000.
OANDA’s Open Position Ratios
(Shows the ratio of long vs. short positions held for the AUD/USD among all OANDA clients. The left percentage (blue) shows long positions; the right percentage (orange) shows short positions.)
The long position ratio for the AUD/USD has moved back up towards 70% as the Australian dollar has fallen back through the support level at 0.8500 to a new multi-year low below 0.8450. The trader sentiment remains in favour of long positions.
Economic Releases
- 05:00 JP Vehicle Sales (Nov)
- 08:00 UK Halifax House Price Index (1st-5th) (Nov)
- 09:00 EU Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
- 09:30 UK BoE – Mortgage Approvals (Oct)
- 09:30 UK BoE – Net Consumer Credit (Oct)
- 09:30 UK BoE – Secured Lending (Oct)
- 09:30 UK CIPS/Markit Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
- 09:30 UK M4 Money Supply (Oct)
- 14:00 EU Euro-Area Finance Chiefs Discuss National Budgets in Brussels
- 14:45 US Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
- 15:00 US ISM Manufacturing (Nov)